Saturday, March 2, 2013

2013 MLS Preview based on Projected Statistics

This is the second year that I developed a preview for Major League Soccer based on players Expected/Projected Statistical Output. The results are based on a combination of previous performance and how the player is expected to be used going into the 2013 season. 

I used the results from 2012 in projecting results throughout the season and although the results underestimated the performance of San Jose, Montreal and Sporting KC and overestimated the expectation during the regular season of the LA Galaxy. A Pythagorean ratios (formula - http://jugglethenumbers.weebly.com/models.html) based on these results returned a 218 correct results from 380 games. I also did similar work for the big 6 leagues in Europe - http://enbsports.blogspot.ca/2012/09/2012-2013-predictions-depth-chart.html with some positive results including currently I correctly have all six league leaders.

From my work these are my prediction for the 2013 Major League Soccer standings based on goals scored, goals allowed and rankings based on goal difference calculated through the projected data.

Major League Soccer
LA Galaxy 34 55 43 12
Seattle Sounders 34 48 37 11
Sporting KC 34 46 35 11
Houston Dynamo 34 50 40 10
Chicago Fire 34 46 38 8
FC Dallas 34 53 46 7
San Jose Earthquakes 34 49 43 6
New York Red Bulls 34 47 41 6
Real Salt Lake 34 44 38 6
Vancouver Whitecaps 34 48 43 5
DC United 34 43 39 4
Colorado Rapids 34 49 48 1
Columbus Crew 34 42 45 -3
Montreal Impact 34 43 49 -6
Philadelphia Union 34 37 49 -12
Toronto FC 34 40 53 -13
Portland Timbers 34 39 56 -17
New England Revolution 34 35 52 -17
Chivas USA 34 35 54 -19

The Biggest difference from the MLS to the other leagues in parity at the top of the league oppose to the bottom of the league. The other issue with the MLS is clubs don't play the same schedule so I'm working on a model taking into account strength of schedule as well as divisional standings. Although based on my results I would be surprised if Montreal or any team below them qualify for the playoffs in 2013.

This is the list of each club individual 2013 preview and statistical projection for each player. To assist people with their 2013 MLS Fantasy team I added each players given value from the MLS Fantasy game (http://fantasy.mlssoccer.com/) as well based on the statistical projection the points each player should score and each players value based on the player price provided by the game.

 Each Club Individual Projected/Expected Player Statistics used to calculate the table above:

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