RNO: 2014 MLS SuperDraft Top 25 Prospects

2014 MLS SuperDraft Top 25 Prospects

Posted by Aaron Nielsen,  January 9, 2014 Email  Aaron Nielsen Twitter @ENBSports   Read this on your iPhone/iPad or Android device      This season I have decided to expand our MLS draft coverage and try to provide what you can expect from similar type of NHL, NBA, or NFL coverage. I started collecting, scouting, and tabulating American youth and college information because of the poor quality of information, available both through media sources and the MLS head office. What I have come to learn is despite the large number of players who join the league through the draft, pre-scouting and analysis is not given a large amount of attention and the draft seems to be more hoping than anything else that the pick will turn into something tangible. If anybody has read the book Moneyball, or follow sports closely, they will know that a good draft could be huge step of creating a successful team on the field.  If you look at the teams in MLS who have either turned their season around or are consistent winners, how they drafted either through scouting or fluke has played a major role. Personally, I have had good success in soccer, including past MLS drafts, in spotting successful players primarily based on how they performed during there career so far. In the case of the MLS Draft, most players have played a number of games during Youth and High School leagues, more recently in College, and many cases playing the summer in the Pro Development League. I've already written in fair detail about many potential 2014 MLS Draft picks in my college articles and those who have had a chance to read these will be familiar with many players in the draft. To start this year’s coverage I thought it be best to look at the top 25 prospects in the draft. Unfortunately, the 2014 SuperDraft doesn't have a large amount of players with huge potential, however, all players on the list can play a role on a MLS club if given the right opportunities and used correctly.   1. Andre Blake Profile School: UConn   DOB: 11/21/1990 Position: Goalkeeper   Height: 6'4  Weight:175 Career College Stats GP GS W L D SO GAA 68 68 46 10 12 36 0.57   BIO It's very rare to have the top prospect a goalkeeper, especially in relation to the draft where more than half of the clubs in the MLS are fairly happy with their keepers. In terms of value and long term upside Andre Blake is my top prospect in the draft. The Jamaican keeper has good size at 6'4 and has done well during his three seasons at UCONN. What puts him number one is I've already heard people in large European leagues discuss him and if MLS did not give him a GA contract, he probably would of left school for a spot in Europe.    2. Christian Dean Profile School: California   DOB: 3/14/1993 Position: Centre Back   Height: 6'3  Weight:198 Career College Stats GP G A SHT GW YC RC 55 1 5 12 0 2 1   BIO Signed very late as a GA, although he is regarded as one of the top prospects in college soccer during the 2013 season. Dean has all the tools you want to see in a potential great centre back - 6'3/198, athleticism, National Team experience and with California being one of top teams during this past season, he was easily in the view of many scouts. He still needs to learn more about the game tactically, and to be honest, other centre backs in the draft are more pro ready, although Dean's potential will make it very difficult for clubs not to pick him.   3. Steve Neumann Profile School: Georgetown   DOB:  Position: Winger   Height: 6'0  Weight:150 Career College Stats GP G A SHT GW YC RC 85 41 26 123 14 6 0   BIO In my opinion, most people have been very hard on Neumann, with most criticism regarding his athleticism. To me Neumann has shown certain skills, mainly his ability to generate scoring opportunities from outside the 18 yard box, that if used correctly I think he could be a huge asset to a MLS club. I see Neumann playing the popular role of an attacking midfielder off the wing who has the ability of running in and scoring from just outside the box, which has made Gareth Bale and a few others very popular.   4. Patrick Mullins Profile School: Maryland   DOB: 2/5/1992 Position: Striker   Height: 6'1 Weight:172 Career College Stats GP G A SHT GW YC RC 91 46 23 131 16 5 0   BIO The evaluation of Mullins asks one of the most difficult questions in trying rate a player: can his college success be duplicated at the MLS level? No one can argue with Mullins statistical output, which included 35 goals, 15 assists, 91 shots on target just over the past two seasons. The issue becomes will he be given the same chances via playing time and position to make a similar impact in the pros? One fit that could work out is if DC United draft him first and use him to replace the recently departed Dwayne De Rosario.   5. Marlon Hairston Profile School: Louisville   DOB: 3/23/94 Position: Central Mid   Height: 6'0 Weight:157 Career College Stats GP G A SHT GW YC RC 39 5 5 30 2 2 0   BIO A highly touted sophomore, based of his success in the US Youth National Team, continued to impress in college with two successful seasons at Louisville. Hariston, who was given a General Adidas contract, will be one of the youngest player in the draft at 19. He is regarded as a classic box-to-box midfielder who likes to be active with and without the ball. Overall, his size and skills are not exceptional, and he will need to improve his strength to handle the pro game, but should be useful to an MLS club in a number of positions.   6. AJ Cochrane Profile School: Wisconsin   DOB: 2/9/1993 Position: Centre Back   Height: 6'3 Weight:195 Career College Stats GP G A SHT GW YC RC 58 5 3 15 2 5 0   BIO Cochrane was always on the radar for being a potential GA pick, and despite this draft already having a number centre backs available, the fact Cochrane’s salary will not count against the cap will make it very difficult for teams to pass on him. Cochrane, like Dean, ticks all the boxes in terms of size - 6'3/195 and strength, although not as athletic as Dean he does have more experience with the US National Team program. In regards to making an impact in 2014 I might prefer seniors Venter, Birnbuam, Cope or Hagglund who seem to be more pro ready.   7. Kyle Venter Profile School: New Mexico   DOB: 3/13/1991 Position: Centre Back   Height: 6'3 Weight:190 Career College Stats GP G A SHT GW YC RC 86 8 5 21 3 2 0   BIO For a couple of years Venter has been one of the more pro ready players in the college game. He has great size and strength, and at 6'3/190 he has shown an ability to win most aerial confrontations and score a header on set plays. Like the question regarding most centre backs, the issue is teaching him greater awareness while under pressure instead of just using his instincts. As well, some could question his leadership capabilities compared to the other highly regarded centre backs in the draft, but he should have a long MLS career.   8. Steve Birnbuam Profile School: California   DOB: 1/23/91 Position: Centre Back   Height: 6'2 Weight:180 Career College Stats GP G A SHT GW YC RC 74 12 4 32 3 6 0   BIO Being injured and missing most of the 2012 season meant Birnbum wasn't on many draft boards preseason. I had him going in the 3rd round or later, however, Birnbuam had an incredible 2013 season leading his California Golden Bears to top of the polls, scoring ten goals in the process, all while playing predominately as a centre back. He isn't as athletic as other defenders in the draft and none of his goals were headers, but he has intangibles such as leadership, good instincts and determination and it will be interesting to see how this helps him as a pro.   9. Jared Watts Profile School: Wake Forest   DOB: 2/3/1992 Position: Defensive Mid   Height: 6'1 Weight:155 Career College Stats GP G A SHT GW YC RC 73 5 10 37 2 12 4   BIO You would never talk highly about a player having four red cards, although in the case of Jared Watts his willingness to get stuck in and tackle is a skill set that is lacking from most college players since NCAA play tends to be very open. Watts is mostly a defensive midfielder but has some ability to play from box to box, and if he can control some of his aggression that lead to these sending offs in college, he could translate this fearlessness and grit into a long MLS career.   10. Mamadou Diouf Profile School: UConn   DOB: 9/15/1990 Position: Striker   Height: 6'1 Weight:170 Career College Stats GP G A SHT GW YC RC 74 36 9 100 12 7 1   BIO Prior to the 2013 college season, Diouf was my top prospect regarding the 2014 MLS Draft. The athletically gifted Senegalese player has shown the ability to score goals, including both headers and from outside the box, but 2013 was a difficult season. First he was injured while UCONN played their weaker schedule, and when healthy only scored two goals in 16 games. He did help lead the Huskies to a deep tournament run and showed an ability to hold the ball and create chances for others. He has potential but is also a risk, especially since he will take up an international spot.   11. Schillo Tshuma Profile School: Maryland   DOB: 9/21/1992 Position: Striker   Height: 5'10 Wght:162 Career College Stats GP G A SHT GW YC RC 49 16 2 45 5 2 0   BIO A surprise GA pick, Tshuma had a disappointing 2013 season, including disappearing from games completely. Tshuma is known more for his speed than strength, and might be better off playing as a winger, however, he is one of the only players in the draft who will challenge opponents with the ball at his feet. Tshuma scored five goals in 2013 after scoring ten as a freshman and will need to improve his offensive awareness if he is going be useful at the MLS level. Due to his contract and potential he should go fairly high in the draft despite the fact that he will also count as a foreign player.   12. Kevin Cope Profile School: Michigan State   DOB: 10/16/1991 Position: Centre Back   Height: 6'1 Weight:175 Career College Stats GP G A SHT GW YC RC 84 3 4 13 1 4 0   BIO Cope is the only player in the top 25 prospects who changed my opinion through a single performance. The 6'1/175 22 year old centre back was the leader at Michigan State and their success primarily was based on his play and health, including a dominating performance against Georgetown where the Spartans were greatly outplayed but Cope controlled his own box including making highly regarded striker Brandon Allen obsolete. As mentioned, Cope has had injury issues, including missing most of the 2011 season, but if healthy he could become an impact player for a MLS club.   13. Pedro Ribeiro Profile School: Coastal Carolina   DOB: 6/13/1990 Position: Central Mid   Height: 6'3 Weight:208 Career College Stats GP G A SHT GW YC RC 86 31 23 104 11 9 0   BIO I have been high on Ribeiro for a few years and after a successful 2013 season he has started catching the eye of others. Hard to miss the 6'3/208 midfielder, and he is what I feel can be a blueprint for MLS in the development of incredibly strong and athletic players, despite Ribeiro actually being Brazilian. Ribeiro adds additional skills such as the ability to take free kicks and if he is able to use his size to his advantage as he can be a dominant MLS force in the mold of a Yaya Toure.   14. Pete Caringi Profile School: UMBC   DOB: 9/24/1992 Position: Striker   Height: 6'1 Weight:175 Career College Stats GP G A SHT GW YC RC 78 37 12 107 12 7 0   BIO The biggest question regarding Caringi is how do you evaluate his college success based on the weak schedule his school UMBC played against? Coached by his father, Caringi was one of the most clinical strikers in college with 37 career goals including 14 from headers and also scored a number of goals while playing in the PDL. The truth is, by playing at a smaller school he was given more opportunities than others, although in a much more competitive world of MLS, especially in the role of a striker, it’s difficult to judge if he can make a significant impact.   15. Eric Miller Profile School: Creighton   DOB: 1/15/1993 Position: Full Back   Height: 6'0 Weight:165 Career College Stats GP G A SHT GW YC RC 63 4 2 19 0 5 0   BIO Prior to the season, Eric Miller was one of the top potential players to get a GA contract in 2014, although his school Creighton struggled and as other players emerged I didn't expect him to be high priority. Miller can play both defense and midfield with his primary position being right full back. However, his skill set more fits the role of a defensive midfielder due to his play based on more positioning than speed. This being said, full back is a weakness in MLS, so Miller could play that role, especially if his MLS club chooses to use a more defensive back four.   16. AJ Corrado Profile School: Indiana   DOB: 1/8/1992 Position: Central Mid   Height: 5'10 Wght:150 Career College Stats GP G A SHT GW YC RC 86 7 19 40 0 3 0   BIO Due to style and play of college soccer the role of a traditional 4-4-2 midfielder is very seldom used, although AJ Corrado fits the role of a right midfielder perfectly. Corrado has good speed but is most known for his ability to cross the ball, including his ability to take corners, which has lead to 19 direct assists while playing for Indiana. I don't think he has the size or strength to be a winger, or the shooting ability to be an attacking midfielder, but if a club chooses to play two up front he can be a very useful asset in creating offensive opportunities from the right side.   17. Joey Dillon Profile School: Georgetown   DOB: 1/25/1992 Position: Defensive Mid   Height: 6'0 Weight:160 Career College Stats GP G A SHT GW YC RC 85 1 1 4 1 12 0   BIO Dillon is an example of a player adapting to a position which could make him very useful for a pro club. Dillon plays the role of a defensive midfielder very well, ignoring the temptation of going out of position to create offense, which allowed his school Georgetown's more offensive players a lot more freedom. Unfortunately, many college players don't have the skills to be valuable offensively and instead have to learn the discipline that Dillon already has to be a useful pro. The fact that Dillon has played this role for four years already, only improves his pro ability.   18. Mark Sherrod Profile School: Memphis   DOB: 8/13/1990 Position: Striker   Height: 6'3 Weight:185 Career College Stats GP G A SHT GW YC RC 71 42 8 113 11 6 0   BIO Highly rated going into the 2013 college season, Sherrod might be an example of a player who tried too hard to impress and instead did not show the natural ability that made him standout. A good sized forward at 6'3, Sherrod scored 42 college goals while at Memphis and he also scored a number of goals in the PDL with Portland timbers under-23 side, although he only scored seven (with four of those from the penalty) in 2013. The fact Sherrod is American and clubs are aware of him will help his draft rating but I'm skeptical about players who struggle in their senior season before joining the MLS.   19. Damion Lowe Profile School: Hartford   DOB: 5/5/1993 Position: Full Back   Height: 6'3 Weight:175 Career College Stats GP G A SHT GW YC RC 46 8 4 15 3 11 1   BIO To add to the defense depth, Jamaican U20 regular Damion Lowe has been added to the mix given a GA contract. Lowe has more offensive instincts than other defenders in the draft, especially in a full back position scoring both goals in college and with his national team. The two questions regarding Lowe are is he naturally more of a centre back than full back? As well, in college he played at Hartford, a school who plays in a weaker conference so my instincts are that Lowe could be either hit or miss depending on how he adapts to the pro game.   20. Ben Sweat Profile School: South Florida   DOB: 9/4/1991 Position: Full Back   Height: 6'2  Weight:170 Career College Stats GP G A SHT GW YC RC 71 3 7 26 2 4 1   BIO He might be the only natural left full-back in the draft, which raises Ben Sweat’s overall status. He has some good attributes, including size at 6'2 and speed, but he doesn't have any great skills that make him stand out. Sweat had a good career at South Florida having a number of responsibilities, including taking free kicks and as a senior a team leader. His MLS longevity will depend on his ability to adapt tactically so he turns into a useful MLS player and not a liability.   21. Reinaldo Brenes Profile School: Akron   DOB: 12/19/1991 Position: Winger   Height: 5'10 Wght:155 Career College Stats GP G A SHT GW YC RC 61 20 9 48 9 3 0   BIO The Costa Rican winger/second striker can be exciting to watch and could tempt teams to take a shot at him based on potential. His intangibles are also interesting, which includes experience with the Costa Rican Under 18 national team, academic awards and was club captain this season. The issue was, at Akron is he could never translate his skill into a string of consistent performances, and because of this only started 17 of his first 43 games in college. While this season he did start in all 18 games he played in, but only managed 8 goals and 22 shots on target.   22. Jacob Bushue Profile School: Indiana   DOB: 5/15/1992 Position: Full Back   Height: 6'1 Weight:175 Career College Stats GP G A SHT GW YC RC 88 6 8 22 1 18 0   BIO Bushue played multiple positions during his time at Indiana, although I think skill-wise he translates best as a right full back. He has good defensive awareness to go along with acceptable offensive instincts, which could develop him into a regular MLS starter at this position. I probably would have him rated higher than most because he doesn't have the natural athleticism, but from the times I've seen him play he has shown a tactical awareness. During Indiana’s championship run in 2012 he was very useful in the development of offense from defensive positions.   23. Grant Van de Casteele Profile School: Notre Dame   DOB: 5/10/1991 Position: Centre Back   Height: 6'2  Weight:165 Career College Stats GP G A SHT GW YC RC 83 4 1 11 3 4 0   BIO Van de Casteele had MLS potential when recruited by Notre Dame, although it’s been the success of the Irish that has made him climb the draft and prospect charts. A consistent defender, Van de Casteele started all of his 83 college games culminating into the 2013 National College Cup Championship. There has been some thought he can play both centre and full back, although I see him more of a centre back, which works well with his height at 6'2, but he will need to bulk up as currently he is only listed at 165 pounds.   24. Victor Chavez Profile School: UCLA   DOB: 8/25/1992 Position: Winger   Height: 5'11 Wght:170 Career College Stats GP G A SHT GW YC RC 79 27 10 69 10 3 0   BIO Chavez has a lot of positives, as well as concerning factors, in evaluating his MLS potential. On the positive side he was the main offensive force for a high profile school at UCLA, scoring 27 goals and in the process scoring eight goals and adding six assists while as a senior in 2013. The issue is, most likely his best position as pro will be as a winger and is a position that has an abundance of players, however at the same time under utilized in MLS. I can see the team that drafts him primarily using him as a late substitute, which raises concerns over any further development.   25. Aodhan Quinn Profile School: Akron   DOB: 3/22/1992 Position: Rightl Mid   Height: 6'0  Weight:155 Career College Stats GP G A SHT GW YC RC 82 17 19 89 7 8 1   BIO As a Freshman Aodhan Quinn created most of the offense at Bradley and based on this success transferred to Akron. He was a big name in the college game and talk of potential GA contracts as a Sophomore and Junior. Although his career at Akron never took off and despite scoring 14 goals and 11 direct assists, his draft value has fallen. Mostly due to the fact he is not going to get the same opportunities in the pros as much of his offense was based on set plays and freedom to roam and he will need to greatly improve his defensive play if he wants to make an impact in MLS.

RNO: 2014 New Years Address

2014 a milestone, but also reminder of more progress needed, for soccer in North America

Posted by Aaron Nielsen, January 2, 2014 Email  Aaron Nielsen Twitter @ENBSports Read this on your iPhone/iPad or Android device    2013 has been a very interesting year for myself. It was the first one where I had the freedom to work on projects of my liking, and a year that I put increased emphasis on soccer in North America both at a league and national team level. Previously, I've been working directly for, or contracted to, a company for many years in the betting industry producing and collecting data for odds, match-up reports and QAing the final statistics making sure everything was on the up and up. I also worked in the sports content media industry, again making sure most sports data we see online was correct and produced in a timely fashion. Unfortunately, in many ways soccer in North America has always been a fringe sport and when you work in the sports industry you naturally get pulled to where the interest is. This is mostly hockey in Canada, NFL, MLB and NBA in the United States and even with soccer related opportunities you tend to do more work regarding the English Premier League, Italian Serie A, and Spanish La Liga than Major League Soccer. As Major League Soccer continues to grow the hope is that people involved at all levels of the game from a front office position, coach, referee, player and supporter will become a more mainstream ambition and a legitimate alternative to other leagues. This is an ongoing theme in many of my articles on RedNation Online - what we now have available to us and we should do whatever we can to not screw it up. Before 2014 even starts, it should be a significant year for the main reason that it's 20 years since the 1994 USA World Cup, a monumental event for everybody in North America regarding Soccer. First, the event was attended by 3,587,538 people, which is a record that still remains and over 200,000 more than 2006 World Cup in Germany despite 12 less games. This proved there was an interest in the game and the American culture of attending sports events was and continues to be a market that soccer needs to exploit. Second, as part of getting the World Cup, the US Soccer Federation promised FIFA the start of a new top tier domestic league and dedicated a large amount of the revenue from the 1994 World Cup for this effort. I started following soccer closely a few years prior to the 1994 World Cup, although the World Cup gave me my first media job regarding a sporting event. Even as a fan, if I was going to list my greatest soccer games it would include the Ireland victory over Italy to begin the tournament. Despite my Irish roots, ahead of that I would put Eddy Berdusco's goal in Edmonton a few weeks earlier as Canada tied the great Brazil and future 1994 World Cup winners 1-1 in front of 50,000 people. The lasting memories of these events and an awareness by myself that the sport was under appreciated in North America, and aspects of sports business ignored in Europe, led me down to a twenty year career with the primary title as a Soccer Statistician. Major League Soccer itself started in 1996 with the total attendance that season near 2.8 million in 160 games - far less than the World Cup 65,000 average, although its own average of 17,406 still made it in the top 20 leagues in the World. The league had ups and downs, the worst around 2002 when they had to fold to two Florida teams in Tampa Bay and Miami. For the most part, since then the league's product, management and interest has slowly improved each year and in the 2013 the league had an attendance of over 6 million, 18,608 a game, which makes it the eighth best attended league in the World and the league has a higher average attendance per game than both the NHL and NBA. Despite all the well deserved pats on the back, the league is no way competitive or generates the revenue compared to other global soccer leagues with similar attendances, and pales in comparison in terms of NHL and NBA revenue. The big issue being corporate support and revenue through television, which is partly understandable based on how competitive the market is, however, I feel the league and soccer industry should take some of the responsibility as well. What makes soccer fringe, or the dreaded term "a minor league", is an idea branded by the soccer community first in fear that the league would fold in a similar fashion to the old NASL, and now by soccer snobs who watch a couple European games midweek and on weekend mornings thinking they know everything about the game and dismiss MLS based on low quality of play. My counter argument is that in many ways the NASL theory was more about not letting the league grow properly than anything else. Yes the league spent too much money and the Cosmos dominance made the league less competitive, but in context, at the time all sports were struggling. The NBA was also close to bankruptcy, the NHL was a mom and pop league, and the NFL interest doesn't compare to what it is today. So the reality is, if managed correctly by restricting foreign players, eliminating wacky rules, and letting the league develop on its own naturally, I believe the NASL could have survived, and like the other leagues, would of benefited once advertising and television became the business it is today. In terms of soccer snobs, my answer has always been to tell them to take a trip to Derby, Swansea, or Hull and first they will ask themselves why am I standing in a smaller, run down, and worse off version of Hamilton and then you will get a better picture of the hype of television. Despite the poor environment, weather and stadiums in these "dirty old towns", the soccer is compelling to an outsider not because of quality of play but because of a passion those people have for their local product and the excitement that generates. This passion needs to be developed here if MLS is going to ultimately succeed, and like my view on the demise of the NASL, this needs to be accomplished by less league control and a greater relationship between the supporters and their clubs. The league and clubs have to be more honest and open regarding their objectives and goals, why players are brought in or released, and coaches and head office staff need to held more accountable. The soccer community also has a responsibility to develop players and sell the dream to children that one day they can be professional soccer players. Finally, the supporters need to make the soccer club, their team, not second to a NFL, NHL or foreign club, because all sports products exist and grow based on the audience who loves and supports it. Most likely even for me as a business, soccer in 2014 will be dominated by the World Cup, which is understandable since it's an event that can get the attention of everybody, even those who don't normally follow the game. I will make people aware in my work that the World Cup will be influenced by players developed by MLS clubs and as a Canadian if we wish to be part of the event, rather than an outsider, it's the ongoing development of MLS that is going to produce us the players to get there.

RNO: How far is MLS from its goals for 2022?

How far is MLS from its goals for 2022?

Posted by Aaron Nielsen, December 11, 2013 Email  Aaron Nielsen Twitter @ENBSports Read this on your iPhone/iPad or Android device    This past weekend I had the chance to join fellow RNO writer Kamal Hylton on his new podcast The Gaffer and Hooligan. I hope to join Kamal on future podcasts as I think the concept is very interesting and useful in giving the Canadian perspective on soccer with regards to MLS and CONCACAF. His first episode was of course dominated by the MLS Cup Final and the recent World Cup draw; two events in the soccer calendar that should be celebrated, which was certainly echoed in the podcast. However, I thought two interesting debating points were brought up, first the quality of MLS and second should MLS be regarded and accept the role as a feeder league? I think MLS should be pleased with their final. It was an exciting game that included plenty of action: 36 shots, 40 fouls, 29 crosses, a penalty shootout that went ten players deep, and played at a relatively fast pace. You could compare the game in the global soccer landscape to a local derby or a classic late season “6 pointer” game, where each team puts in a huge amount of effort and never gives up. Arguably it could also be regarded as one of the best MLS games this year, which is rare for most soccer seasons, as usually the tension of the final tends to prevent players playing to their full potential. Aside from this, however, is the reality that if this is the best the MLS has to offer I think it brings up some concerns for the future, especially if we wish to believe the MLS objective of being comparable to the top leagues in the world by 2022. The game was chippy, of the 36 shots only seven were on target, including a few misses that showcased the league's lack of quality. Even tactically, both teams were playing for the ugly goal with Kansas City crossing at every opportunity and both teams pressing to force the other team into a mistake. Outside of Beckerman’s opening assist and a Morales' missed chip, other acts of skill weren't going have influence on the game, which you expect from soccer played at a high level. There were factors why this was the case. First, the weather didn't help, and if the league is seriously considering a winter schedule just imagine two teams playing in these conditions when nothing is on the line. The second argument is that Sporting Kansas City and Real Salt Lake are two small market clubs and they don't have the stars that a LA, New York or Seattle has. This is true, although under the current system there is a reason why Sporting Kansas City and Real Salt Lake made the finals -  based on depth these two clubs have the most fully developed rosters of any team in the league. Which brings up the question of how does MLS compare to other leagues in the world and how can they improve to reach a comparable level to the top leagues in the World? The answer is difficult because MLS isn't really comparable to many leagues around the globe. It is certainly not at the skill level of the big five leagues in the world and I don't think Sporting Kansas City could compete with any teams currently playing in the UEFA Champions League. MLS is comparable with some leagues in terms of being top heavy in talent like Russia, Ukraine, China, the Middle East, and Mexico, although these leagues are far more active than MLS in the transfer market and if they sell a player to a larger league, it’s been for a substantial transfer fee. I could argue talent-wise, MLS is comparable to Japan and Australia or European feeder leagues such as Denmark, Sweden, Norway and Scotland, although these leagues don't talk about competing with the top leagues in the world. To be honest, outside of Australia, for a player, I would say these leagues are better than what the MLS currently has to offer. So quality-wise you are looking at a collection of players who would struggle for jobs in most 1st divisions in the world, and as a collective unit would be at the bottom of most league tables or in a lower division. The irony is despite the lower quality of play, revenue-wise MLS is better than most leagues in the world. Seattle Sounders 42,963 attendance per game, $175 Million dollars in value and $18.1 million dollars in yearly profit is comparable with any soccer team. In a hypothetical environment, if you put all MLS clubs current value based on attendance, revenue and potential, within the English Football League, arguably five or six clubs would be consistent Premier League teams and the rest would be in between relegation and promotion. The smallest market team in MLS would compare to a Leeds or Sheffield in England in terms of revenue verse expected performance. The question now becomes how does the MLS transforms revenue potential into quality of play? First off, I don't think you become a feeder league. Given the chance, the feeder leagues around the world would choose not to be, and they are mostly feeder leagues because financially they can't afford the value of the players they produce, so it’s good business to sell. Although this is not always the case, as in many instances it’s difficult to continue to produce players of this skill level and in Europe many clubs in the long run have lost money through gate revenue by selling a player, including some clubs being relegated and never achieving top level again. MLS clubs should not feel they’re in this position and instead concentrate on long term development and providing the best quality of talent each week. Which based on the traditional model of soccer, is a huge luxury since most clubs just deal with either winning, surviving or selling on to maintain their current position in the football world, and mistakes could see the team relegated or in bankruptcy. This also means that MLS doesn't have to be in the market for high priced talent since the need is different. Sure a Jermaine Defoe might sell a few more tickets, but MLS doesn’t need Defoe to score goals and instead they can concentrate on the players who will produce the same results on the pitch as Defoe for 1/10 of the salary.    In the MLS Cup Final, the best players were Salt Lake’s Beckerman and Morales and Sporting KC’s Zusi and Collin. Players who are rewarded well salary-wise in the MLS in the $250,000 range, but due to age, awareness and skill would probably be a Free on the transfer market and be valued at less than $500,000. In the top five leagues these types of players would be cut or loaned out to a lower league because a top five league would have a $2,000,000 valued player competing for those positions. Doing statistics for over 60 leagues worldwide, I come across a number of players who fit this mold and are mostly ignored by the football world. A great example would be Southampton striker Rickie Lambert who played a number of seasons in League 1 and League 2 scoring a huge amount of goals, although it wasn't until the Saints got promoted to the EPL that most people knew who he was. Although ambitious, I do feel there are opportunities for the league to succeed on their goal of better quality, however, I’m fearful it’s just a marketing ploy. Much like when MLS started in 1996 as a legacy to the 1994 USA World Cup, and at the time one of the main pitches was that in twenty years the United States could win the World Cup. Close to twenty years later United States isn't any closer and based on the current draw could finish last in their group in 2014. It was easier in 1996 to make far reaching comments, but now American fans watch global soccer more regularly. While there is nothing better than attending a game live, people will begin to question why they are paying the same prices for tickets as elsewhere, yet not receiving the same quality product. This could be the league’s most difficult campaign yet and hopefully more knowledgeable fans of the league like Kamal Hylton, and his new podcast, will hold them accountable.

RNO: Offseason moves show promise for TFC

Offseason moves show promise for TFC

Posted by Aaron Nielsen, December 23, 2013 Email  Aaron Nielsen Twitter @ENBSports Read this on your iPhone/iPad or Android device    Toronto has made a number of interesting moves this off-season and, like I wrote in my Gilberto article, to me it was almost inevitable with the direction the team was going in that they would make a play for Dwayne De Rosario. Although not officially signed, the chances of him wearing a Toronto FC jersey this season is almost certain. They also brought in Justin Morrow, a defender who through injuries was called up for the 2012 All-Star game against Chelsea and a game for the United States National Team, playing his only international game against Canada in January 2013. These moves and the addition of Gilberto, Jackson and potential minutes from Jermain Defoe will make Toronto better, although I wouldn't go as far as saying on paper they are a guaranteed playoff team. Even if playoffs await, the experiences of Montreal and Vancouver during the past two seasons showing that bringing in talent on paper doesn't necessarily equal a happy and/or successful season. Looking at the current Reds roster you can assume that with everybody playing and healthy Toronto will play a traditional 4-4-2 diamond formation. This is a formation that was very popular in World football ten years ago but that has lost its appeal since and very few clubs play this formation now. The diamond first came into popular football culture with the idea of isolating first an attacking midfielder like an Andrea Pirlo, who became by design the center of most offensive build up play. However, it got its name when teams and media started identifying the role of the defensive midfielder, with the most publicized being Claude Makelele. Teams have gotten away from the Diamond as modern coaching continues to identify the need for a strong midfield and the additional responsibility of what we expect from a modern fullback. This format is very different than my original hope for Toronto a year ago and for advancing the developing roles of the younger players on the team. My hope was that Toronto would experiment with a 5-3-2 or 3-5-2 and allow Ashtone Morgan to play the wing, utilizing his speed and his ability to cross the ball from the wing. Instead I see Toronto in 2014 playing a strict back four with Jonas Elmer being penciled in as the starting Left-Back ahead of Morgan. Justin Morrow is also traditionally a left-back, although he shoots from the right, so I can see him moving to the right and TFC have a starting back four of Morrow, Caldwell, Henry (Agbossoumonde) and Elmer. Interestingly, Morrow and Elmer have similar backgrounds with both having good speed and defensive awareness but both also having failed to mature to the level of player many expected them to become. Elmer played previously in both the Chelsea youth system and the Switzerland U21 national team but four years later was playing in the Swiss 2nd Division in front of crowds of 2,000 before moving to Toronto. As for Morrow, he lost his position of starting left back last season to British journeyman Jordan Stewart and played the second half of the season as a part-time Central Defender and playing off the Earthquakes bench. The defensive midfield position is Mathias Laba's with the hope he can fully recover from his injury last season. The feeling is he is healthy and was protected at the end of last season since the Toronto FC season was already basically complete when he went down. However, if he's injured/suspended this season, expect Jeremy Hall to fit in defensively as a suitable replacement, although not as strong in ball control or build up play. The rest of the midfield becomes the big question mark. Based on salary you would expect De Rosario to play in the attacking midfield role with Jackson on the left and Rey on the right in support, although Dwayne could be replaced by both Jackson and Osorio. Toronto also have Bekker, Lambe, Aparicio, Osorio and the team could draft and/or bring in additional midfielders to challenge Jackson and Rey. My opinion on the De Rosario move is if the team is truly going to go for it, then I do feel the move is a good one. Historically my feeling was that not giving De Rosario his money in 2011 was a mistake. Furthermore, it was not Dwayne’s fault that the club gave Julian De Guzman such a ridiculous contract. Even this past season where signs of age and health started to show, De Rosario’s 2013 statistics would of been a Toronto FC leader in Shots on Target, Key Passes, Through Balls, and Fouls Earned and he only played 1600 minutes and also passed the ball at a higher average than the Toronto team last season at 77.6%. I understand the concerns and, if I was developing TFC for long term success, this isn't the direction I would go. But if De Rosario can embrace the role of play maker he could help Toronto's offense becomes a greater threat, which should lead to more goals as well as take the pressure off the defense. The final addition, although not finalized, is the eventual inclusion of Jermain Defoe. A skillful player, personable individual and someone who has done great work regarding charities and building the game among poorer communities in England, Defoe is certainly someone the MLS and Toronto FC will like to showcase in front of their fans. Although the question remains, does he make the club, league that much better and sky rocket Toronto FC into a contender over the length of his contract? Personally I have never seen Defoe as great player, even in his prime. I probably wouldn't have him in a list of the top 500 players in the world. His supporters always argue that Defoe has never been given a chance to show who he is. Although there are reasons for this, the main issue, and worryingly from a TFC perspective, is he is very similar to Gilberto in that other than the goals he scores, he doesn't have a history of doing his share in creating offense or taking any role in defense. Over the last couple of years in the EPL, Defoe has the least touches per minute than almost any other player in the league, so although his passing is quite good above 80%, he averages only 10 passes per 90 minutes, which are numbers less than Robert Earnshaw and Justin Braun in 2013 and Danny Kovermans or Ryan Johnson in 2012 individual passing numbers. Defoe is also 5'7, which means he's never really been a threat on set plays and is well known for either his inability or lack of interest in playing defense. What Defoe has been able to do is his find a way to take a shot with decent accuracy from anywhere, so he's averaged double digit goals each season, including a number of goals from outside the box. So given a full season you should expect 15 to 25 goals a season, although that alone will not make Toronto a winning team. I think there are some positives to Toronto FC’s off-season this year and the fact they are making moves early shows a commitment to improvement. It’s also nice to see Toronto looking within the league to add players, although in the case of both Jackson and Morrow there were questions about their performances last season. Furthermore, the other reason their former clubs let them go is the players expected increased salaries in 2015, so this could make them one year rentals. My major issue with Defoe is with the $10,000,000 transfer fee, money that could be used so much better regarding soccer in Canada, although it’s not my money. Player for player Toronto certainly compares better to other clubs in the league on paper, although questions remain and there are still unknowns regarding management, coaching, and players. So they are going to have to show me a great improvement, including wins on the pitch, before I order my TFC playoff tickets yet.

RNO: Gilberto's arrival signals not just personnel change for TFC

Gilberto's arrival signals not just personnel change for TFC

Posted by Aaron Nielsen, December 16, 2013 Email  Aaron Nielsen Twitter @ENBSports Read this on your iPhone/iPad or Android device    With regards to Brazilian soccer players, Gilberto is a quite common name, so in my database of players Toronto's new signing goes by Gilberto Oliveria. To be honest, prior to a month during this season's Brasileiro he was a virtual unknown, even for people who follow the game closely in Brazil. It started off with 40 metre goal against Nautico that we all have probably seen now, then he had a first half hat-trick in 31 minutes against Corinthians and finally capped it off scoring both goals in a 2-0 win over one of the most well known Brazilian club, Santos. While goals don't make a player, it does bring one attention and I added Gilberto to my list of potential prospects, a list I put together for all leagues I cover statistically. Brazil has tried to follow a traditional soccer league by making the Brasileiro the main competition. However, teams still play in their state championship, Brazilian cup competition, the South American tournaments Copa Libertadores and Copa Sud America, and a club can play up to 80 games a season. This means it's difficult to judge quality of play due to a lack of consistency, which this season even included last years champion Fluminense finishing in relegation. At the same time, since Brazil is such a recruiting hot spot for players, there is great access to data on how a player has performed. Myself, I have been doing Brasileiro statistics since its beginning in 2003, as well as Serie B data, which can give us a better idea of what to expect than the traditional five minute promo video. Gilberto came to the Brasileiro as an Internacional player in 2011 and was used a late sub including the club's 2012 Copa Libertadores before being loaned out to Sport Recife. Recife were a newly promoted side and soon relegated with Gilberto scoring 7 goals on 45 shots (23 on target) in only 1375 minutes. This season he was loaned out to Portuguesa scoring 14 goals (tied for 6th), 73 shots (33 on target) in 1793 minutes. Gilberto is a goal poacher and not afraid to shoot and if he can do the same in MLS he will score goals. The concerns arise regarding how he plays with the rest of the offense, which shows some worrying numbers as he only tallied one assist, has a 73% passing percentage, 2 turnovers a game, and a disciplinary record of 44 fouls and 8 yellow cards. Add the fact TFC's other new signing Jackson only had 71% passing percentage in 2013, 2 turnovers a game and 43 missed shots, as well as disciplinary issues. I'm afraid to say they are not a great improvement to Toronto's 46.3% possession, 73.8% passing percentage, and 64 yellow/6 red cards - some of the worse numbers in the league. So the question becomes, can Gilberto get the opportunities to score his goals, and if not is he any better than Robert Earnshaw who had better passing stats, less turnovers, a similar shooting percentage and produced for TFC 8 goals for 1/10th the cost? As well, Toronto FC doesn't initially give the impression that they are changing tactics, so you have ask yourself what are the expectations of the club this season and how will the club develop? Personally, counter to anyone's view, for me 2014 is an addition to the rebuilding season with the defense being young, coach tactically naive who will make mistakes, and not at the overall caliber of other top teams in the league. I have concerns for the goalkeeping as well, as one advantage Toronto had last year is teams had a lot more information about Stefan Frei than Joe Bendik and now that Bendik is the number one will teams try to exploit his weaknesses?  Offensively the partnership of Gilberto and Dike up front (at least until Jermain Defoe is officially announced, but truthfully questions remain) has potential but I have concerns over both players being able hold up the ball to create offense. Right now the midfield will rely on Matias Laba defensively, and Alvaro Rey, Jonathan Osorio, and Jackson each having ball skills but none being outright playmakers. TFC will most likely play a counter attacking style with a lot of long shots and individual plays, which coincidentally is the skill set of former Red and recently made available Dwayne De Rosario. So if the team is truly going for it this season, signing De Rosario might be the smartest move the club can make this off-season. Alternatively, if Toronto admits they're building this season, trading down in the draft as part of the Convey deal could be an interesting move. This season's draft is defender-heavy, and has goalkeeping prospect Andre Blake and traditional college-based forwards and midfielders. The only player who truly fits a 4-4-2 style of play is Indiana's AJ Corrado, a right midfielder and is known in college for his ability to cross the ball and he's basically, in my view, the 2014 version of Kyle Bekker. Rated higher by some, he could fall to 15th in the draft once GA's are picked, so Toronto could draft him and create a very traditional and maybe effective 4-4-2 midfield with him and Bekker on either side crossing the ball in to create offensive opportunities. The great part of the off-season is the potential ideas being endless, and best of all the team you support is tied for first. Sports follows a projected model and in the final analysis there are reasons why teams finish where they do and individual players have a lot less of a impact than people believe or think. Gilberto is an interesting signing, although I'm not sure I would pay the rumored cost, but in many ways he is just another guy who will only succeed if given the right opportunity and environment. He also is someone who traditionally played on poor teams, none finishing better than the 10th position needed for an MLS playoff spot. Toronto FC's season has turned ugly the past few years because expectations have been too high going into the season and vocal fans thinking they know a lot about the game based on very little information. Yes it's cool to have an Argentinian, Spaniard, and now Brazilian, and maybe an Englishman or Italian on your club, but that doesn't mean you are going to be successful. If we were to create a 2013 TFC highlight video, Darel Russell could seem like the club's best player. I'm not saying my view is perfect either, although hopefully what I provide is a critical step away and hopefully ask the important questions because at the end of the day we all want to see TFC succeed.

RNO: North American college soccer recap: 2013 National Championship

North American college soccer recap: 2013 National Championship

Posted by Aaron Nielsen, December 17, 2013 Email  Aaron Nielsen Twitter @ENBSports Read this on your iPhone/iPad or Android device    As a person living in North America who loves soccer, and someone who is always excited by the amount of teams, leagues, and games each week taking place in Europe, college soccer can provide a version of a traditional pyramid league system. In Canada, 45 universities battle it out for each year for the CIS Championship, with a Vancouver Whitecaps alumni UBC Thunderbirds winning the championship in 2013.  In America over 600 collegiate schools have men's soccer teams, including 172 who play in NCAA Division 1. On Sunday, December 15, that season came to completion as Notre Dame took on Maryland at the Philadelphia Union home stadium PPL Park for the NCAA College Cup championship. To say it’s a big event would be an overstatement as the game gets very little coverage in American media. This is confirmed when even the lead article on Notre Dame’s website was about a women's basketball game and NCAA.com did have Notre Dame on the frontpage, but an article regarding the men's basketball team. The game was also broadcast on ESPNU - a channel most people don't get, including myself, so while the game was being played I was actually watching Atletico Madrid taking on Valencia and periodically looking at the live gamecast for updates. That being said, in terms of an MLS perspective, NCAA soccer plays a key aspect in player recruitment for the league. On average, each MLS draft, primarily based from NCAA athletes, brings in 50 new players in the league which is around 10% of the total players in the league and just under 50% of new players brought in by a club each season. An interesting stat this season, according to NCAA records, is 1,181,928 people attended NCAA Division 1 soccer games, including nine schools averaging over 2000 fans a game. You would expect bigger coverage for the Cup final, although like you would hear from any great music, movie, art or food critic, what should happen and what does happen are two very different things. The game itself featured two teams who were not ranked as the top teams in the end-of-season polls, but were two schools I thought could make it to the finals and certainly deserved to be there. I actually projected Maryland to be in the finals in my tournament preview, while I had Notre Dame losing to Georgetown in the regional finals, which never took place because despite having around 75% of possession Georgetown lost to Michigan State 1-0 in a third round upset. Pro prospect-wise, which a lot of my analysis is based on, both Maryland and Notre Dame provide a strong core of seniors and players who can make a name for themselves over the next four drafts. The game I actually watched on Sunday saw Athletico beat Valencia 3-0 where Diego Costa, a player I projected to have breakout season as part of my Spanish La Liga prospect list, scored another two goals. In contrast, on a cold afternoon with the weather just above freezing, Notre Dame scored their second goal in the 60th minute and were able to hold off Maryland for a 2-1 victory. They assisted by some debatable referring over a couple of handballs in the Irish 18 yard box that were not called. The game was typical American fair with both teams putting in a good effort and the stats showed Maryland certainly put pressure on the Irish, including 12 shots and being awarded 10 corner kicks. However, much credit has to go to Notre Dame’s coach Bobby Clark whose team only lost one game this season despite losing Dillon Powers and Ryan Finley in last years MLS draft. In terms of prospects, the match was always going to be about Maryland's, and 2014 top draft prospect, Patrick Mullins versus Notre Dame, and most likely a Chicago Fire homegrown player, Harrison Shipp. Both are seniors, team leaders and players who have had consistent college careers capped off by great senior seasons. Mullins opened the scoring from a rebound after Notre Dame got away with their first handball scoring his 19th goal this season, and in total he scored 46 goals and 23 assists in his Maryland career. Shipp assisted on the game winning goal from a free kick that was headed in by senior and local Philly product Andrew O'Malley, and by reports was the Man of the Match. He finished the 2013 season with 12 goals, 9 assists and 23 goals and 20 assists during his college career. The game told stories about other prospects as well, with Maryland's underclassman Schillo Tshuma touted as an almost guaranteed GA candidate earlier in the season hardly making an impact in his 62 minutes. Sunny Jane, another preseason draft prospect who raised questions when not invited to this season’s combine, only saw 5 minutes of action off the bench. Alternatively, Notre Dame seniors brought new light to themselves with keeper Patrick Wall and defender Grant Van de Casteele looking to solidify there draft potential, while the Irish goalscorers in the game O'Malley and Leon Brown might have added themselves as potential picks later in the draft. Leon Brown is a very interesting case because prior to the season he was in the top 50 Senior Prospects, but failed to make a large impact this season being used as a reserve starting only three games and contributing only 4 goals and 8 shots on target - not great totals from a forward. With the college season now complete attention is now placed solely on these and other prospects with the 2014 MLS Draft in less than a month. For me personally, who has been following senior players for  the over 80 games during their college career, and also watches MLS closely, I do see potential in certain players establishing an MLS career. In the case of Shipp and Mullins I do have concerns since both players professionally would be either wingers or secondary strikers - a position not utilized well in the MLS. Comparing them to current MLS players if given the right opportunity, I could see them becoming like Chicago Fire players Mike Magee or Chris Rolfe, or they could struggle such as a Casey Townsend or Andrew Wiedeman in adapting to the pro game and finding playing time. The key, and part of the continuous growth of the league in its goal to improve its quality of play, is to fully understand the strength and weaknesses of all potential future players in MLS so that clubs draft with not only an awareness of the players’ skills, but also have an understanding on how they can best use them to achieve their full potential.