RNO: Inspecting the value of the MLS Academy system

Posted by Aaron Nielsen,  August 7, 2013 Email  Aaron Nielsen Twitter @ENBSports   Read this on your iPhone/iPad or Android device      I often receive questions and comments regarding my strong opinion on team development within the MLS framework. Often they follow the lines of: I over value the draft, I over value American players, why do I ignore academies, I devalue a large amount of foreign players who come into the league and I give a strong on opinion of who I think will succeed and fail. While it might appear off the cuff, my opinion is formed from closely watching MLS since its first season 1996, taking information from every game played in MLS history, analyzing the outcome, evaluating the success and failures, and having a history on every player who plays and is recruited to play in MLS. See also: TFC's current direction raises concerns and little optimism To give a bit of background about myself, I've been involved in the collecting of statistical data for soccer since the beginning of the English Premiership in 1992. I worked directly with the largest betting companies in the world monitoring the data and examining for consistency and trends to help these companies create the betting lines as well make sure the bets they make available are fair and correct. I've expanded this database to cover 60 major leagues and tournaments around the world, which includes MLS as well as minor soccer in North America and the NCAA. The betting industry is a results orientated business and has little to do with player development, although having access to such a great amount data and growing up a huge baseball fan gave me ideas to look beyond the traditional statistics associated with the sport. I believed you can do much more with this data and went beyond results and created stats for leagues, teams, players, goalkeepers, managers and referees and my current database has over 5,000,000 lines of soccer data. With this data I've done a variety of statistical based projects, and most recently I joined a company called Soccermetrics, whose goal is to expand statistical analysis in soccer beyond betting and concentrate on other aspects of the game. Soccermetrics is an American based company, and as a result we do a lot of MLS-based work figuring out models such as: projected data, prospect reports, salary cap analysis, quality of play analysis, which is the background to a lot of my articles on RNO. I understand my pieces can be very opinionated, and although I give reasons why I feel a certain way, I may dismiss the alternative views. The main reason for this is that based on the history of team/player development, especially in MLS, I'm skeptical of the alternative view, especially ones sold to the fans by the league and individual teams. There are a few ideas I'm motivated to write about, and may in the future, but I'm going to start with what I think is the biggest myth in MLS and world soccer player development and that is a team can create a squad by promoting players through an academy type system. Even clubs known for their academy on average play a small role in the club's starting 1st team squad. Of major teams across Europe, Barcelona has the most successful, with nine current squad players from the academy. Ajax Amsterdam are also very well known for their academy and have six, while in England, Manchester United have four (Giggs, Evans, Welbeck, and Fletcher) Tottenham have only one (Jake Livermore) and Chelsea one as well (John Terry). Teams such as Barcelona and Ajax also have 100 academy based players within their system and academy/Reserves teams playing in full leagues schedules against other professional teams. The EPL has a reserve league and two academy leagues so academy based players could play 100 games before given an opportunity with the first team. Around the world, the main reason to have an academy in professional soccer is for the purpose of generating money on the transfer market. Even then, the results are a needle in the haystack, although selling a player for $5,000,000 can cover the cost of the 100 players who failed to graduate the academy. However, with the increase in costs many teams academy programs are known for being loss revenue to the point where EPL clubs such as Manchester City and Newcastle United have considered eliminating them altogether. Which brings us the to MLS. MLS clubs don't have the resources as a European/South American club, and not just financially but also in coaching, training, or culture. MLS teams also don't control the transfer of their own players as all of them are controlled by the league. The biggest reason why an academy system will not be successful in MLS, in the European or South American sense, is because of how players are compensated in comparison to a team's overall budget. If a academy player is successful there is an expected timeline where he will be brought into the academy at 15, turn professional at 18, becomes an everyday 1st team player at 21 and becomes an integral part of the team at 24. Currently, the only example of this in MLS is Chivas USA player Tristen Bowen. Bowen signed as a Academy player in 2008 and has total career earnings of $668,215 for a striker who so far has scored six goals in 68 career MLS games. Bowen, who is now 22 years old and earns $156,363 this season, if he remains on the club for two more seasons his salary expectation would be pushing and could go above $250,000, comparable to what Patrick Nyarko is making this season. Closer to home, Ashtone Morgan has earned in total $160,604 as homegrown player, and based on his MLS experience is in line to get a raise of over $100,000 a year next season. In comparison, the average MLS drafted senior is 22 years old and will cost a team between $150,000-$300,000 in salary by the time the player reaches the magic age of 24. They will most likely qualify for a smaller pay raise than an academy player who has already played in the league four years longer. It also means that under the current system, if an MLS team was able to field a starting roster of 24-year old academy-based players, the team would actually be over the current MLS salary cap of $2,950,000. I know this includes a lot of numbers, and is even more confusing under the MLS system, but if you want understand why the idea of a team loaded with academy players is unrealistic, it's because not only is it unlikely based on pure player development but also would be extremely difficult under the current league salary rules.

RNO: Who fits the profile? TFC's Designated Player search approaches

Posted by Aaron Nielsen,  October 9, 2013 Email  Aaron Nielsen Twitter @ENBSports   Read this on your iPhone/iPad or Android device      The biggest question on the minds of everyone who follows Toronto FC is who are these Designated Players that Tim Leiweke has promised will be signed come January? Who will be the players who are supposed to bring new excitement to BMO Field and allow us to forget about seven long years of suffering? Rumors have mentioned as much as 26 million dollars being put into this effort and Toronto FC management flying to Europe to talk to players in both England and Italy. The assumption is these players are currently on an English Premier League or Italian Serie A clubs and it has also been mentioned they might not join the Reds until next summer as they will be participating in the 2014 World Cup. When the Diego Forlan rumors were rampant there was plenty of talk of how he would fit into the team and I wrote an article saying that if the Forlan rumors were true we would have to sign another high profile player that he can play with and mentioned a few players including Simao and D'Alessandro. I'm encouraged the club feels it will take more than one high profile DP, or quality player, to make a difference. Based on the available money the options could fit almost 90% of players in the world depending on if the club wants to pay a transfer fee and how long the proposed contract will be. For example, Clint Dempsey’s new deal with the Seattle Sounders was a reported $33 million dollars with $9 million going to Tottenham, and Dempsey getting $6.8 million a year for four years, with less in 2013, as he joined the Sounders midseason. It might be disconcerting that all the money could be spent in one go, although under this contract Dempsey is likely one of the top 100 players paid in the world of soccer. So let’s throw out some names. Staying within the EPL and Serie A here are some big names who fit what Toronto FC is looking to acquire. Will they come is another questions as beyond footballing skills, priorities such as family and wages, all play a major role in players moving from one league to another. Andrea Pirlo Pirlo has been on the minds of many including fellow RNO writers. Pirlo will be 35 years old next summer after probably playing some role with the Italian team during the 2014 World Cup. No question he is a great player with over 600 games for his club teams including Inter, AC Milan, and Juventus. He also has played over 100 games with the Azzurri. Pirlo would also greatly improve Toronto’s on field performance based on his passing and dead ball accuracy and another great selling point for a player of his age is he's been healthy the last three seasons. On the negative side, is Pirlo motivated to move? He has two children under ten and owns a vinyard in Italy. He is only making a reported 3.5M euros a season currently but is also worth an estimated 30M euros, so a two year contract at 10M US might entice him, but even then I'm afraid the chances of convincing him to sign are very slim. Emmanual Adebayor Adebayor is the other name that has been a popular piece of discussion. He is a player who is interesting because of his skill level but also his controversial personality. There is no question that when Adebayor is motivated he is great player, scoring 160 goals in Europe playing for clubs such as Monaco, Arsenal, Manchester City, Real Madrid and Tottenham Hotspurs. Currently Adebayor is out of the first team squad at Tottenham. He has had some back and knee injuries but mostly he's been the odd man out as Tottenham have a brought in a number of new players. I think he would be an exciting addition to the MLS but also a risk similar to Seattle’s other new signing Obafemi Martins. Adebayor would be very expensive as he currently on a 10 million euro a season contract that lasts till 2015. Frank Lampard The big talk last summer was if Frank Lampard was going to sign with the LA Galaxy after much discussion that he was no longer needed at Chelsea. He answered his critics by scoring 15 goals in the Premier League and signed a new one year contract. A one year contract means he is also available for a free after this season and although he is one of Mourinho’s favorites, the club brought in a number of midfielders so Lampard could see himself slowly becoming less of an impact component. This would be the shock signing that would deliver Leiweke promise, not only to the Football World, but also to other clubs in the MLS. On the pitch Lampard has 245 goals in 815 games, 618 with Chelsea and also has 100 caps with England. I believe he would also make an impact in MLS because his goal scoring and playmaking doesn't rely on speed so age shouldn't be a factor. The issue is you might have to give 8-to-10 million a season since he is engaged to a television broadcaster in England who probably doesn't want to move and Lampard himself has turned down the MLS in the past. Kaká Another name rumored coming to the MLS for a number of seasons. Certainly on a downward swing, he should still have the skillset in MLS that made him a scoring and play making threat before his move to Real Madrid. The 31 year old midfielder has scored 170 goals in 500+ games, including 95 goals in 270 game with AC Milan. He re-signed for AC Milan this summer at $5 millon US, although has only played one game with the team so far. Despite his contract lasting to 2015 he might be allowed to leave on a free and like Lampard, MLS might have already had discussions with him about joining the league. This being said, over the past few years most Brazilians, once their European career seems to be finished, they have chosen to return to Brazil. Antonio Cassano Cassano has had his ups and downs although arguably he has been in better form at the later stages of his career than when he was younger. The 31 year old Italian has scored over 100 goals in over 400 games on a number of teams in Italy including Roma, AC Milan and Inter Milan and also had a short spell at Real Madrid. He also played 35 games with the Italian national team, with his last game in 2012, so he will probably not be a part of the 2014 World Cup side. A fiery competitor has been red carded on a few of occasions so not sure how well he will handle MLS referring, or his fellow players not playing to his ability. Contract-wise Cassano could fit and should be able to be signed at 3/4 million US a season as he is also out of contract this summer. Miroslav Klose/Diego Milito I know it’s unfair to join to these great players as one but both have a number of similarities that fit Toronto FC’s needs. Both will be free agents this summer and both players are currently on around 4 million US a season while playing in the Italian Serie A, so it could be argued despite their success neither player has received their big pay day yet. Klose is a 35 year old German who has scored 200 goals in 500 games between the Bundesliga and Serie A and also played 130 games with Germany. Milito is 34 year old Argentinan with 235 goals in 521 games in Argentina, Spain and Italy and has played 25 games with the Argentinian National team. However, like Pirlo, both players have young families so it is unknown if a few million dollars more a season will entice to come to North America. Names not on most people's list but should be Dimitar Berbatov A name that I haven't heard mentioned in the rumor mill, but we are talking about the top players in the world, and Berbatov fits what Toronto FC require the most: a big name proven goal scorer. Although his style is regarded as lazy, his awareness of the game could make him the first MLS player to score 30 goals in a season. The 32 year old has scored 253 goals in 564 games in Germany and England as well as 48 goals in 78 games with Bulgarian National Team. Berbatov is out of contract at the end of this season and is currently making around $6 million US a season. If Toronto was to offer a comparable contract for three seasons it would still give them a decent amount of money to bring in a proven provider in the attacking midfield, maybe fellow Fulham player Damien Duff. Samual Eto'o When Anzhi decided to sell off their whole team after losing the first couple of games during the season I tweeted that the MLS should make an approach for Samual Eto'o. The 32 year old Cameroon striker has scored 288 goals in 544 games, and another 55 goals in 112 international caps, signed for Chelsea but only on a one year contract and could be available next summer. Eto'o has an advantage over the other players that I mentioned as he is a regular for his national team, which might have been one of the motivating factors for Beckham and Keane doing well in the MLS as they have something else to play for. The only issue with Eto'o is his salary expectations as he is currently on around $10 million a season and would be a big chunk to all of Toronto’s money, but he may also be the big name to keep the fans happy. Jozy Altidore This signing would be out of leftfield, but in other ways makes sense. It seems Sunderland are already heading for relegation and while Altidore has proven he can score in the smaller leagues in Europe, he has struggled to make an impact at the top level. As I wrote in my last article he could be the perfect fit for the new MLS and potentially be a career player for the club he joins scoring double digit goals for the next 10 years. There would be a rather large transfer fee for him since Sunderland paid 10 million euros for his services and he probably expect at least $4 million US a season. I don't think Toronto FC could make a stronger statement regarding their wish to be a competitive force in the league for many years to come. Kenwyne Jones So far I have mentioned players who should be well known to most soccer fans and because of this they are making a decent wage with their current club. Kenwyne Jones doesn't have the following but does have some attributes that would make him a good fit for the MLS. First he is from the CONCACAF region, playing 57 games with Trinidad & Tobago, he is younger at 28 and although he doesn't have the goal totals, his physical ability should make him a consistent goal scorer in the MLS. He is also a free transfer this summer and you might be able to sign him for under $3 million a season. You could also sign him to a long term contract and if he wishes to return to Europe you could get a transfer fee for him. Other players who fit the critera of EPL/Serie A known names and within the budget constraints include upcoming free transfers Damien Duff, Nicklas Bendtner (Arsenal), Esteban Cambiasso (Inter), Tomás Rosicky (Arsenal), Craig Bellamy (Cardiff) and Joe Cole (West Ham). Players with one year left on their contracts include Cristian Ledesma (Lazio), Jermain Defoe (Tottenham), Rodrigo Palacio (Inter), Peter Crouch (Stoke), Goran Pandev (Napoli) Peter Odemwingie (Cardiff) and Fabio Quagliarella (Juventus) Personally I wouldn't restrict myself just to the EPL and Serie A and feel you could accomplish more trying to get 8-10 players in the $200,000 salary range than a high priced DP to improve the overall quality of your MLS club. That being said, I understand the objective of getting a well-known player to reinvigorate the fan base and prove to the rest of the league that you are willing to do whatever it takes to be a top tier team in this league. When dealing with players in this age group, through the analytical work I've done over ten years of analysis on each listed above, I know their strengths and weaknesses and no player is perfect. Although all players above would improve the quality of  MLS, but as always when signing new players Toronto FC has to ask themselves is this player going to perform on the pitch, will the player be motivated to play and will his presence make the team significantly better because at the end of the day it’s all about wins, points and championship.

RNO: TFC's seven years of poor spending for Leiweke et al. to overcome

Posted by Aaron Nielsen,  October 17, 2013 Email  Aaron Nielsen Twitter @ENBSports   Read this on your iPhone/iPad or Android device      The salary cap has existed in professional North American sports since the 1984-85 NBA season when they adopted a strict cap of $3.5 Million a team per season. Since then, a number of leagues have implemented similar systems including the NHL, NFL, CFL, a number of World Rugby Leagues, Aussie Rule Football and of course Major League Soccer. Mistakes in managing a salary cap are frequent and with the amount of money now being thrown around you see a number of horrible one-off deals. When evaluating the history of the salary cap in team sports, it could be argued that Toronto FC has been the worst club ever in managing this type of system. Failing to make the playoffs, over a seven year period that has included a total of 50 wins, shows this ineptness, but even more damaging to Toronto’s past management is that during this time TFC had one of the highest payrolls in the league. Since 2007, Toronto FC has paid players a guaranteed salary of $33,202,884. This is third highest behind Los Angeles (which includes the Beckham, Keane & Donovan contracts) and the New York Red Bulls (this includes Henry, Cahill and Marquez contracts). In comparison, playoff regulars Seattle totaled $24,761,713 (including Dempsey), Real Salt Lake $20,071,454, Houston $20,411,038 and San Jose $16,942,986. The only team comparable to Toronto is Chicago who have spent $32,399,721, but have also made the playoffs four times and won 133 regular season games over the same period of time. In analyzing this history of failure is the amount of money Toronto was willing to give players, or accept bad contracts from other clubs in the league. DP's have taken a big cut of the total with Danny Koevermans getting a guaranteed $4.6M, Julian De Guzman another $4.6M, and Torsten Frings $3.5M, and we can't forget Mista who was given $987,337 to play nine games and then retire from football. These four players combined for 134 career Toronto FC games, scoring a combined 22 goals with Kovemans getting 17 of them. I would say that many clubs have had issues with DP's, evaluating DP's value, and they have been one of the worst investments on the pitch. However, regarding MLS, what it meant off the pitch might be another story. I can forgive Toronto FC for overspending on DP's, but some of the contracts they gave for other players to join the club is a greater issue. For example, English Championship skilled players such as Carl Robinson, who was given $315K, and in his career $960K, for 74 games and later played 12 games with New York before he retired. $436K to Darren O'Dea for 26 games and who is now in the Ukraine, and not to mention the first signing, Jim Brennan who played 84 games and made $534K in three seasons. They spent a further $212K for Rohan Ricketts, who after his 39 games with Toronto, has traveled the world playing non-league quality football. Andrew Welsh was on for $205K, who after his 20 games in Toronto continued his career in the English third division of football. This trend continued this season, and even Robert Earnshaw's $155K a year is more reasonable, but at that price there should be better options. Outside the lower leagues of England, TFC hasn't done any better with players such as Carlos Ruiz getting $460K, Pablo Vitti $303K, Laurent Robert $250K, Peri Marosevic $129K, and Collin Samuel $115K. All of whom never proved to be worth those salaries with Toronto, or since leaving the club. Newer signings Alvaro Rey on $200K, Jeremy Brockie $175K, Jonas Elmer on $130K are also in this salary range. We have yet to see what Rey and Elmer could do, but based on Toronto's track record of signing, over paying and being disappointed by the results, it doesn't look good. Toronto has also have had a history of taking bad contracts from other MLS clubs. The worst probably being the Eric Hassli deal with Vancouver which included next year's first round pick in return. However, in terms of cap space, others caused similar problems regarding team development, including taking $270K of salary for Ronnie O'Brien, $232K for Jeff Cunningham, $200K for Nick Garcia, $150K for Tyrone Marshall and $131K for Adrian Serioux. These players all gave minutes but didn't prove to be the permanent piece expected with these type of salaries. A good example of this in 2013 is Bobby Convey who is currently on $215K guarantee salary. Despite his improving play, Toronto is still not getting what is expected from a player in that salary range. Finally, Toronto FC has given lucrative contracts to players that went beyond the player's value. Chad Barrett was paid $61K in 2008 and then paid $202K by Toronto in 2009 and 2010. A more recent case is Richard Eckersley going from $90K in 2011, which was the top range for a full back, and is currently on $300K, while Stefen Frei’s salary has consistently risen from $120K in 2009 to $200k this season, despite being plagued by injuries. The reality is this is not only a Toronto FC concern, as American/Canadian based players will get salary increases each season based on how many years they have played in the league. However, team management needs to be aware of this and not overvalue players purely based on loyalty. Players currently in the $200K range in MLS include Sebastian Le Toux, Nat Bochers, Nick Rimando, Osvaldo Alonso, Claudio Bieler and Mike Magee to name a few, while Toronto FC killers Dominic Oduro and C.J. Sapong are on $122K and $92K respectfully. With such large salaries given to so many players it also means Toronto had a high number of players at very low salaries. Ironically Toronto didn't seem give them the fair share of the deal despite the contract relief they've provided. Nana Attakora averaged $24.9K over 4 years, Milos Kocic $42K over 3 years, Joao Plata $48K over 2 years, Sam Cronnin $60K, Luis Silva $79K – a couple of these players demonstrate to you the value of the draft. Currently there are a number of players at this range, including players who have given the club great value for service and it’s in important for Toronto FC’s future to properly understand the true value of these current resources especially players who make under $100K a season. I apologize for recounting bad memories for many Toronto FC fans and I'm sure I'm going to hear examples of other poor franchises in sports. They are in a city with both the Toronto Raptors and Toronto Maple Leafs, although comparably I would relate Toronto FC’s failure more closely to the Blue Jays 2013 season based on the resources of the club. The last seven years TFC should of been favorites, or close to it each season, yet they continue to finish out of the playoffs and close to the bottom. While money doesn't mean success, it does mean opportunities, which in my view Toronto FC has failed with more so than any other team in professional sports.

RNO: TFC's current direction raises concerns and little optimism

Posted by Aaron Nielsen, August 3, 2013 Email  Aaron Nielsen Twitter @ENBSports Read this on your iPhone/iPad or Android device    I will freely give my opinion, and I'll even be a smart ass, but what I don't tend to do is get angry about anything, especially if it's out of my own control. Except in the instance where the mistake is not only hurting the one who is making it but also all the people who care for it. This is my current view of Toronto FC with the continuous talk of improvement and new players, the releasing of parts, be it draft pick or players for allocation money, and the team's most recent signings. See also: Another TFC overhaul. Have they learned from the past? I will admit being angry at Toronto FC reminds me of knowing a drug addict who you watch deteriorate: first you laugh about it as you don't think it's serious, then you ignore problem as it's embarrassing, until it reaches the point of sadness where there is little chance of reclaiming lost days of past, while those hopes and great expectations deeply affects those who feel obligated to care about it. My anger goes beyond the losing team, the fact that season tickets for Bayern Munich (among other teams) are cheaper than Toronto FC, and the fact management has gone out of their way to kill the once exciting atmosphere that was once the talk of the league. My anger is the fact by that management's choice in actions are making the situation worse not only for the short term but the foreseeable future as well. Without even mentioning the marketing/business departments, and concentrating purely on the field, my anger comes from the fact that I, or I could imagine almost anybody who attends games and understand the basics of MLS, could do a better job. Hiring an experienced coach who understands the league, drafting the most high profiles players at each draft, signing and trading for players who have a proven record of success in the league, and if you are going to bring players in from abroad, you bring in someone you have heard about or at least playing on a club you heard of. Toronto FC rebuild number twelve (I'm sure many have lost count, but assuming two every season) seems to be following the most recent, and short term success of the Montreal Impact. The basic idea being any player in Europe is better than an American/Canadian, work from defensive standpoint because you can't lose in a 0-0 scoreline, and then hopefully bring in a DP striker who you'll rely all your offense on. If he scores a goal a game you have a chance to win, and if he's a bust you can blame the team failures on him. This is not aimed as a criticism at Montreal as I wrote in my preseason write-up of the Impact that they are an MLS experiment with many things I like. Patrice Bernier has been a star in the MLS, while Marco Di Vaio and Alessandro Nesta were two of the top players in Italy while playing in Serie A. In my preseason synopsis of the Impact I wrote it’s great to sign experienced players, but in a restricted budget environment it is hard to be consistently good if your team lacks depth. Personally, I like some of the moves the Impact have made, although I still predict Montreal to struggle to make the playoffs this season. The big worry is if the experiment doesn't pay off, with a club developed in this fashion, "where do you go next?" So far in 2013 the experiment has paid off and Montreal have been the surprise team the first half of the season, although they are still only 5 points ahead of the teams out of the playoffs, and with the CONCACAF Champion League games to play I still have concerns about them making the playoffs. The other difference between Montreal and Toronto is despite my concerns, Montreal still maintains some core MLS/North American depth in Patrice Bernier, Justin Mapp, Collen Warner, Jeb Brovsky and Andrew Wenger, while Blake Smith has been a useful draft pick playing seven more games then Kyle Bekker and Emory Welshman has combined for Toronto. This might not be important to the fan watching the team play, however, this is key in building a long-term successful MLS club and by doing Toronto's current model in signing of average foreign players over college-based players means you sacrifice assets and team consistency. The main reason is most American/Canadian based MLS entry players drafted sign a three year contracts with the club, while foreign players sign for a season and some even for 6 months. Which means American/Canadian based college players who sign to these long term contracts can be traded to other teams for attributes, where foreign players leave on free transfer and in many cases in MLS history will return to where they came from once an opportunity presents itself. So by ignoring MLS precedents and not taking advantage of the MLS system, each season you are basically left with an empty shell of a team and now you have to try to fill a roster each season with a bunch of foreign and semi-pro players that no one has ever heard of before who will accept 50K a year to basically eat minutes. Which brings me back to Toronto. If you remove the foreign players on short contracts the only living things left in the TFC shell are Matias Laba, a holding midfielder at best under the name of a DP. Bobby Convey, a player making 200K and based on good MLS economics will most likely be cut at seasons end. Jonathan Osorio who has been the story of 2013, although has only played 853 minutes and only had five shots on target, and at this point still hard to tell what he would be as a full-time, season long regular. Ashtone Morgan, who I still feel has potential but looks like the next one to leave with the signing of Jonas Elmer, and the disappointing and falling stock of Gale Agbossoumonde, Kyle Bekker, Emery Welshman and some might even say Doneil Henry. TFC also has no 2014 MLS draft first round pick which they traded to Vancouver, no third round pick which they traded to Kansas City and no player eligible for Homegrown status. Even the much maligned Chivas USA, who very much are in the same boat, still has Dan Kennedy, Carlos Bocanegra, Tristan Bowen, Carlos Alverez, Caleb Calvert, Josue Soto, and Jose Correa. So based on teams assets, it's very difficult not to look ahead and say next season Toronto FC will be very much like this season's team: a collection of current roster players trying to keep a job in football or a new crew of out of work players across small teams and leagues in Europe and South America, chosen by a team with no proof of proper scouting and a league who is equally as bad at recruiting players. Which means either another horrible season in the bottom of the league or the paying of multiple millions of dollars for a high profile DP. Although even then, based on league history, expect the team to be average at best and again most likely missing out on the playoffs. Unless there is drastic change performed by a miracle worker, from what we have to work with expect the future to be difficult as well. Worst of all like the drug user metaphor, expect MLSE to pretend everything is fine, give more and more false promises and continue to lower the expectations from the people who care. Yes, I'm angry because Toronto FC and MLSE have an addiction to failure and they are not only hurting themselves but upsetting people who's only wish is for Toronto FC to succeed.

RNO: Another TFC overhaul. Have they learned from past mistakes?

Posted by Aaron Nielsen, July 16, 2013 Email  Aaron Nielsen Twitter @ENBSports Read this on your iPhone/iPad or Android device    What can you say about a team that only has seven total shots on target in eighteen games from the midfield? Either the team is playing some weird 6-1-3 formation or the team is very bad. TFC haven't played a 6-1-3 this year, so yes, they are very bad. Despite only doing slightly worse than projected in the standings, the team has done it in a very boring, and in many ways, a scared fashion. Let’s be honest. Like Johnston, Preki, Klinsmann (to a different extent), Winter, and Mariner, MLSE have been scammed again by a coach who was totally unprepared and provides zero assets to the club, as well as by a new President and General Manager whose greatest skill is knowing when to leave a sinking ship. DC United, who by the way last won the title almost 10 years ago, are probably the only greater disappointment this season than the Reds. Why does this keep on happening? Well part of this is easily blamed up top by a group of individuals who are stuck between knowing nothing and thinking they are making the right decision. Although in this situation, despite their great support, I can almost blame the fan base as much as anybody. I joined twitter two years ago, and since I happen to watch most Toronto FC games when on television, I tweet along with the hashtag #TFClive. I try to be funny, I try to be smart, but mostly what I am is honest. During these last two seasons I've made many comments directed towards Toronto FC ineptitude and acquisition of players such as Cann, Plata, Johnson, Lambe, Henry, Bekker, and Welshman, with the basic point these players are what they are and in many cases not good enough for MLS. In almost every case I will get a counter tweet saying “these players are great”, “why am I hating”, and so on, with the greatest back and forth being about Aaron Winter's 4-3-3 and how Toronto FC is developing themselves to be the next Barcelona. After looking in the mirror and realizing our mistakes I'm now willing to start over, and based on the current dismantling of the team it seems Toronto FC wants to this as well. In comes Tim Leiweke, the man given a lot of credit for the turnaround of the LA Galaxy. A team who missed the playoffs three years in a row from 2006, to finishing last during the 2008 season, and now has won back to back championships. In Toronto’s case there is already talk about bringing in a huge DP with Diego Forlan being the name on everyone’s mind. Let’s continue with this optimism and try to figure out how Toronto FC can become a competitive team going for the championship in the foreseeable future. Admittedly, Toronto FC are worse off than LA were in 2009. The 2009 Galaxy had a 27 year old Landon Donovan and Alan Gordon, they also drafted Omar Gonzalez and AJ De La Garza during the 2009 SuperDraft, and took Sean Franklin 4th overall the year before. On a side note, I ask all who follow MLS closely, wouldn't Andrew Farrell, Carlos Alvarez, Kekuta Manneh, Deshorn Brown, Walker Zimmerman, or Dillon Powers look great in a Toronto FC jersey right now? They also brought in of course David Beckham, as well as some quality MLS players in Donovan Ricketts, Mike Magee, and Todd Dunivant, orchestrated by probably the greatest coach in American soccer history, Bruce Arena.  My first suggestion for the big fix, with long term success, is the need to bring in someone who understands the league and player development to coach and run the team. My view has always been current Maryland soccer coach Sasho Cirovski would be the perfect fit for Toronto, although now I'm thinking the problem is too big for him. Toronto would have to spend a large amount of money to steal a Bruce Arena, Sigi Schmid, Dominic Kinnear or even a Jason Kreis from one of the successful teams in the league. Second it’s the DP, and let's for argument sake say it is Diego Forlan. Personally, I think he would do well in MLS, although I question that he can be convinced to come. Currently, he is one of the top goalscorers in Brazil Serie A, who will be a championship contender this season. He is also making a reported $2.5 million US dollars to play in Brazil. If he was to come to Toronto the biggest question in my mind is who will provide a partnership service to him? If I was in charge, I would also attempt to bring in a companion player, hopefully not a DP. Forlan’s current teammate at Internacional, Andrés D'Alessandro, is a good example. Or the Portuguese international Simao Sabrosa, who played many games with Forlan at Athletico Madrid and is now a bit time player in Spain, is potentially another great choice. Andres D'Alessandro is a 32-year old Argentinean attacking midfielder who has been playing with Forlan’s current club Internacional since 2008. He was voted South American player of the year in 2010, leading his team to a Copa Libertadores championship. Prior, he played for River Plate and San Lorenzo in Argentina, Wolfsburg in the Bundesliga, Portsmouth in the Premier League and Zaragoza in Spain. Overall, he's played 359 career league games scoring 69 goals and 66 assists. He also played with the Argentina National Team 28 times. He still is Internacional’s captain and if Toronto is able to get Forlan, there is no reason D'Alessandro wouldn't have an interest as well. Simao Sabrosa, who is 33, would be known by anybody who follows Portuguese soccer, being capped by his national team 88 times scoring 22 goals. For his club career, Simao has played for Sporting, Barcelona, Benfica, Aletico Madrid, Bestiktas, and most recently Espanyol, scoring 122 goals in 456 games, mostly from an attacking midfield or winger position. Simao played with Forlan between 2007-2011, which were Forlan’s most successful seasons in his career, including a UEFA Europa League championship in 2010. Simao is on a yearly contract with Espanyol so could leave on a free if he chose to do so. Other lesser known alternatives who provide the same skill sets at a much cheaper price could be Argentinians Juan Eluchans and David Ramírez, Paraguayan Carlos Paredes, Uruguayan Mario Regueiro, Polish player Sebastian Mila or Egyptian Mohamed Aboutreika, only to name a few. Yes, all over 30, and in many ways looking for a pay day, but have also had successful careers including their recent season and whose main skill has been one of a threat and provider from midfield - something Toronto FC’s current side lacks the most. So we now have the nucleus of team who can improve the overall return from players such as Earnshaw, Koevermans, Eckersley, Caldwell and Laba. Although one of the smartest things the LA Galaxy have done in their team development is let the young players play and through this experience these players have become MLS ready. So my new look Toronto FC side would be GK: Bendrik (Frei); Defenders: Morgan, Agbossoumonde, Caldwell, Eckersley; Midfielders: Laba, Osorio, Convey (Bekker); Attackers: Forlan, Simao/D'Alessandro, Koevermans (Earnshaw). The other key is that the MLS is not a sprint or a marathon. It’s about being successful at the right time. With the playoff system all you need to get during the season is somewhere between 40-44 points, which means Toronto would need 10 wins in the final 16 games. This would also make Toronto the hottest team going into the playoffs, which has proven to be a great omen for MLS championships. Last season the MLS Cup final was played between LA and Houston who finished 8th and 9th during the regular season. Now will this happen or is it even possible? Probably not, but the moral of the story is Toronto FC needs to look at the big picture and make drastic changes with a proven track record. Now is the time, in the midst of another overhaul, instead of thinking it's doing something right, failing, and putting us through another horrible attempt, because at the current pace soon enough there will not be any team, or fans, at all.