RNO: Analyzing the Montreal Impact's road to the playoffs

Posted by Aaron Nielsen, September 26, 2013 Email  Aaron Nielsen Twitter @ENBSports Read this on your iPhone/iPad or Android device    With Toronto FC's on-the-field season all but complete for 2013, I thought I would give my attention to the Montreal Impact. After three difficult games that lead to losses, there is some concern regarding the club, having not advanced in the Champions League (despite winning 2-0 at home against C.D. Heredia) and even more concerns about making the playoffs. Statistically Montreal should make the post-season based on their position in the table and strength of schedule. Montreal play homes games against playoff rivals New England and Philadelphia, who the Impact have done well against and are statistically projected to get four to six points from those games. Their away games are against Chicago, Houston and Los Angeles, where they are projected to gain two to three points, while their final game is in Toronto. A win against TFC should give the Impact 56 points, which would keep them 3rd in the Eastern Conference, and at least seven points in the six games to guarantee a playoff spot.  Third place is important as it would mean the Impact would get a 1st round bye and a conference semi-final home/away fixture with either Sporting KC or the New York Red Bulls. Montreal won two of three in the season series against KC, while losing two out of three to New York. They will likely be perceived as underdogs in both series, although an interesting note of the three loses against these teams is that Nesta missed two of those games. As I detailed in my preseason preview of the Impact, there has been a great dependency on Nesta. The Impact are 11 wins, 5 draws and 5 losses with a 1.38 goals against average with him in the line up, while in MLS games where he hasn't played, they have won twice, drew one and lost four games with a 1.85 goals against average. The other dependency has been Marco Di Vaio, as his 18 goals and two assists counts for 43% of the Impacts offense. Compared to Thierry Henry's 9 goals and 8 assists amounting to 37% of the Red Bulls offense, while Sporting KC's Claudio Bieler's 10 goals and 4 assists is 33% of his club's offense. Di Vaio also has more than 1/3 of Montreal's shots, but he also had his greatest struggles against KC, where in three games he played 258 minutes, scored zero goals, had one assist and only one shot on target. He scored 2 goals on 5 shots on target in three games against New York, however, in his most dominating game against the Red Bulls where he had a goal and three shots on target, Jamison Olave didn't play. Another key element of the Impact's success is their midfield where veterans Patrice Bernier, Justin Mapp and Davy Arnoud have demonstrated the value of proven commodities in this league. Felipe has also shown an ability to spark the offense with 5 goals and 6 assists, but one could argue his influence on the game has been less than in 2012 primarily from his ability to draw fewer fouls this season. Andres Romero has performed adequately based on his $48,000 salary, however, he's only scored 2 goals and had 5 shots on target, while new signing Hernan Bernardello has yet to make the influence as expected and been dealing with injuries. New signing Piscu has also been injured and has yet to make his Montreal Impact debut while regulars Matteo Ferrari, Hassoun Camara, Jeb Brovsky have performed well partnered with Nesta. In net, Troy Perkins is a veteran keeper with over 185 MLS games under his belt and important playoff experience when he played for DC United. That being said, Montreal currently have the worst goals allowed per game of any team in a playoff position. One reason for this is they have allowed five penalty kicks, but interestingly enough, they committed the least fouls in the league - almost 100 less than Toronto. One issue is they have been prone to counter attacks, especially when trailing, which the Impact need to be aware of in the playoffs as they will be playing a two-leg aggregate series during the first two rounds.  Through all of this, Montreal's biggest concern approaching the playoffs is their lack of bench depth. The main issue is support up front where statistically Daniele Paponi has provided the most offense with 2 goals and 1 assist, although the team is under .500 when he plays with 5 wins, 7 losses and 3 draws. Sanna Nyassi, who was an asset in 2012 with 6 goals only has one this season, while Collen Warner, Andrea Pisanu, Andrew Wenger, Blake Smith and Karl Ouimette, based on the lack of minutes, don't show much trust from the coach. This might be a huge blow in Montreal's playoff success as post-season games come quickly, where a club could be required to play as many as four games in ten days. At the beginning of the season I thought the Impact would struggle to make the playoffs, however by team/player performance they have done as I expected and it's been the struggles of DC United, Chicago and Houston that has allowed them to be in the position they are in now. I think the Impact have done very well, which Toronto can learn from, in creating a key MLS core while the higher profile players have performed well when healthy. The question for Montreal heading into October and possibly even November is do they have enough to win the seven or eight more games needed to lift an MLS championship? Even if they don't, from a sports fan living in Toronto I would dream for just the opportunity.

RNO: An Analytical Preview of the Montreal Impact for 2013

Posted by Aaron Nielsen, February 27, 2013 Email  Aaron Nielsen Twitter @ENBSports Read this on your iPhone/iPad or Android device    As a statistician exploring new ideas, I understand the issues of publicly trying out an experiment. It can either go great and help create your identity or be a complete failure where you look like a fool for even attempting it. This is how I see the development of the Montreal Impact - an experiment, going against all most popular theories in how to develop a successful team in the MLS and trying to be the first club since Chicago in 1998 to be a competitive expansion team. Chicago actually won both the league and US Cup their first season in the league, although the league was only three years old at the time. Montreal will be happy with playoffs in 2013 and, although the Eastern Division is weaker than the West, the Impact will need many of their risks to pay off to attain this result. Here is my Projected/Expected statistical analysis of the Montreal Impact: Goalkeeping   Last season Montreal traded Donovan Ricketts for Troy Perkins and statistically Perkins was more effective with a 0.89 Goals Against Average and a .813 save percentage compared to Rickets 1.64/.630. Now part of the reason for this is Perkins played when Nesta started, so although Perkins is a good keeper, it’s how organized the Impact defense is that will be the effect on how many goals are allowed. Full-Backs Last season, Montreal fullbacks were usually a traditional MLS affair in Brovsky and Valentin and Wahl and Gardner. Although Brovsky and Valentin remain, the starting full backs in 2013 will be Camara on the right and Iapichino on the left, both with European experience. Camara is actually the Montreal defender with the most local experience after playing with Montreal NASL club in 2011. Iapichino will have familiarity with new head coach Schallibaum, as both participated in the second division of Switzerland. Neither players are proven and, other than filling minutes, I would say much isn't expected from them other than maintaining a traditional Italian style back four. Centre-Back Nesta has been a sensational player defensively and in the MLS he should be a great leader, although even in his prime he was never a threat, playing most of the games in his own half. While his partner Mateo Ferrari doesn't have the calmness of his fellow Italian International, historically he has played the exact same style. Which basically means Montreal management feel the Italian style of defense is the best in the world. That might be true. The issue is that most countries in the world, including the MLS, don't play Italian style football. This, in my opinion, creates two issues. Montreal is basically ignoring any offensive contribution by the defense, especially on set plays. Furthermore, what happens if one of the starting four miss games and are replaced by an American/Canadian defender who doesn't have a similar upbringing. This being said, the health of Nelson Rivas might be vital for the Impact as the season rolls along. Defensive Midfield Based on Montreal best lineup through projected stats, I have the Impact playing a 4-1-4-1 formation with Canadian Patrice Bernier playing the role of holding midfielder. Bernier was what Toronto expected from De Guzman years before as the main passing route from the defense to attack. Bernier had the most passes to Impact forwards in 2012, even more than the more forward playing Felipe. I don't expect Bernier to score as many goals as in 2012, since six of his nine goals came from the penalty spot. Midfielders Felipe was a huge surprise in 2012 after being virtually an unknown in the lower leagues in Switzerland before joining the Impact. On the downside, Felipe was a leader in missed passes with over 300. He also used refereeing decisions to create some of his chances. I still think he'll play a significant role in 2013 but I would expect a statistical drop off. The other three midfielders have great experience in MLS veterans Justin Mapp, Davy Arnaud and new signing from Italy Andrea Pisanu. The Montreal midfield, like the rest of the team, is as much about holding their opponent as scoring, so expect the team to lead the league in fouls. Forwards Montreal will have a great expectation in Italian forward Marco Di Vaio to score goals. Although he only scored five in 17 games last season, he averaged more than 12 goals per season for top teams in Europe against much stronger defenses than MLS. I expect Di Vaio to score goals and project him to get 14 this season if the team is set up in the fashion that I project based on the team’s playing similar systems around the world. Bench  New signing Andres Romero might find a role as a second striker or an attacking midfielder, although the other Montreal substitutes don't necessarily fit the system and might get forgotten in this experiment. Sanna Nyassi was an offensive threat in 2012, but in the current system he might only be a potential substitute for Felipe or Di Vaio if they struggle. Andrew Wenger, Brovsky and Valentin would feel much more comfortable in a traditional MLS set up and, if I was in charge at another club, I would talk to Montreal about acquiring their services. According to my projected statistics, I have Montreal scoring 43 goals while allowing 49 goals for a +/- of -6 or 14th overall in league. This takes into account that I only expect Nesta to play 2/3 of the Impact games, which exemplifies the biggest concern I have regarding the Impact experiment. It’s great to sign experienced players but in a restricted budget environment it is hard to be consistently good if your team lacks depth. Personally I like some of the moves the Impact have made, although I still predict Montreal to struggle to make the playoffs this season. The big worry is if the experiment doesn't pay off, with a club developed in this fashion, where do you go next?

RNO: An Analytical Preview of the Vancouver Whitecaps for 2013

Posted by Aaron Nielsen, February 27, 2013 Email  Aaron Nielsen Twitter @ENBSports Read this on your iPhone/iPad or Android device    Unlike Toronto, you can't label Vancouver as lacking ambition and the club was rewarded for this effort last season by being the first Canadian team to make the MLS playoffs. That being said, there are some concerns regarding this ambition, especially when it involves MLS clubs signing international based players. The Whitecaps have had a history of signing players that have raised a few question marks regarding their eagerness, with negative outcomes like Mustapha Jarju, but also a huge positive in Lee Young Pyo. In my projected data for the Whitecaps last season, I did have Lee performing well because of his success around the world playing in England, Holland, and Saudi Arabia. In 2013, I expect a quality season out of Nigel Reo-Coker because of his proven track record and for consistently playing a large amount of minutes for each club he's been at. I have concerns regarding Daigo Kobayashi, who after a failed experience in Greece was unable to reestablish himself back in Japan over the last two seasons before joining the Whitecaps. That being said here is analysis of the current 2013 Vancouver roster. Goalkeeping It seems that Brad Knighton will finally replace Joe Cannon as the starting keeper, which I'm a fan, as last season Knighton had a 0.81 goals against average compared to Cannon who had a 1.34 goals average. There were some concerns regarding Knighton's ability as an MLS goalkeeper but he did have a very successful time in the NASL. Although the Whitecaps  goalkeeping is not the best in the league it shouldn't cost them too many goals. Full-Backs YP Lee played very well last season and added an offensive threat in the buildup via the right wing. Lee will be 36 this season, which raises the biggest concern regarding the Whitecaps defense: that being age and can they maintain health and expected performance? Based on historical data Rochat would be listed as the starting left back although new signing Johnny Leveron might eventually take over the role. Based on his college career there are still hopes for Greg Klazura to develop into a MLS starter, although based on the other option I don't think he will get significant minutes. Centre-Backs Demerit and O'Brien both have a decent track record, which includes experience in the English Premier League. The issue is they are both in there mid 30's, but if they remain healthy they should be defensively one of the most consistent parings in the MLS. Both players are also taller than 6 feet, however, they don't have the scoring record of other defenders with similar height. Brad Rusin will be decent back up when needed and plays a similar style. Defensive Midfield The signing of Nigel Reo-Coker should give Vancouver the most formidable holding midfield paring along with highly regarded MLS prospect Gershon Koffie. Both play a "bend not break" defense and are willing to take a yellow to prevent an opponent's counter attack. I project Reo-Coker will take more offensive liberties in joining the MLS and expect both goals and assists from him, while Koffie showed last season that he can provide some offence via a pass or long range shot. Davidson provides decent depth after playing 1640 minutes last season and if the Whitecaps choose to play more forward Matthew Watson can be used as a Central Midfielder. Wingers I project Vancouver's main formation being a 4-2-2-2 with two attacking midfielders or wingers to compliment the holding midfield and forwards. I have some concern with the choice of players both projected as starters: Kobayashi and Camilo could be perceived as selfish players who like to play more centre than the wings and like to take shot over a pass. This was one issue the Whitecaps had last season where they had poor build up, but able to score the individual goal. Where Vancouver might find an alternative is in their first round draft picks in Eric Hurtado and Kekuta Manneh. Manneh has had a incredible 18 months going from an unknown to a GA pick, and he could be the Whitecaps secret weapon like Mattocks was last season, however he also has a history of over enthusiasm and horrendous tackles. Forwards I'm not sure the Whitecaps ownership knew what they were getting when they paid Kenny Miller $1,200,000 a season. The striker has scored in the past, but if you breakdown his successful seasons it was part of a dominating side. When asked to be the star player he failed to perform, including scoring only 6 goals in over 4000 English Premier League minutes and two relegations. I think if he plays his talent will equal some success and I predict he'll score 8 goals this season, but can also be the teams top assist man. I thought Darren Mattocks should have been top draft pick in 2011, as he was in my MLS prospect list in 2012 and I find him the most exciting player to watch in the MLS. The question becomes can all this talent equal a great statistical performance? I think he has tendency of getting injured and missing chances but if it all comes together for him he could be a game and season changer. I also like Corey Hertzog on the bench as he showed to be a useful player in the USL Pro last season. The big question is if Omar Selgado can develop into what was expected, and if so, him and Mattocks could be one of the most dynamic forward duos. Season outlook It's unfortunate that I did a whole preview of the Vancouver Whitecaps and didn't mention any Canadians. Unfortunately it's hard to see where the Canadian players will get minutes. Telbert and Alderson are more conventional midfielders, which I don't believe fit in the best formation for the 2013 Vancouver Whitecaps, while Clakre will also be behind Araujo Jr. and others in terms of gaining minutes as a forward. Overall, I think Vancouver are a decent team, the problem in evaluating them is how they compare with other MLS sides and unfortunately I don't think they have the proven players in all positions to compete with the top clubs. I project Vancouver to score 48 goals this season, and I'm concerned that despite a great holding midfield that an aging defense will allow 45 goals for a +3 overall. This puts them around the same position as last season: fighting for a playoffs spot in a difficult Western Conference which will include a stronger Dallas and Colarado side, so I could see the Whitecaps missing the playoffs in 2013.

RNO: An Analytical Preview of Toronto FC for 2013

Posted by Aaron Nielsen, February 26, 2013 Email  Aaron Nielsen Twitter @ENBSports Read this on your iPhone/iPad or Android device    This weekend is not only the opening week for the 2013 MLS season, but also the annual MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference in Boston. The conference founded in 2006 is the sports statistician Comic-Con, with a number of speakers talking about increasing role of analytics in the Sports Industry. Although still under-represented at the conference, soccer has played a bigger role each year that includes an annual off campus get-together prior to the conference to discuss ideas and work. My view is that soccer is still the 'Holy Grail' when it comes to analytics in sport partly due to the size of the game, where last season in transfers alone over 5 billion dollars was spent. As well, soccer doesn't have the history in North American where statistics and analysis plays a major role, not only in front offices, but also in the interest of general fans. One of the problems are when you put a bunch of nerds in a room they tend to over analyze things, so instead of developing products that relate to the average fan they use mathematical formulas that takes so much explanation it will most likely put the reader to sleep. The work that I produce is simple partly because I started producing it when I was just at 15, but also because I based my work on the traditional scoreboard section in the local newspaper and of what fans of North American sports expect from statistical data. This simplicity has allowed me to quite easily gather information and currently I produce data for over 60 soccer leagues worldwide, including the complete statistical career of over 50,000 professional players. With this information I started developing a system quite common in North American sports called 'projected' or I prefer 'expected statistics', which basically means based on the history of the player and his current situation you try to project what his statistics should be for the upcoming season. Anyone who plays fantasy sports will be familiar with this concept, as you either try to evaluate this on your own, or most likely get the information from a magazine or a fantasy game provider. Last MLS season was the first time I experimented with this concept and projected, to much criticism, that Toronto would finish last and have a horrible goals against average. Unfortunately for 2013, despite a number of off-season moves and admittedly a better defense, I still have Toronto in a similar position this season struggling in the bottom of the overall table with New England, Portland and Chivas USA. One issue with projected stats is you have to analyze the team based on its current roster so hopefully for Red fans Toronto will bring in a few players to improve its standing. That being said here is analysis of the current 2013 Toronto FC roster Goalkeeping It is yet to be proven how much significance a goalkeeper plays on the success of a club. That being said, historically a healthy Stefan Frei is a slight improvement over Milos Kocic, which should save Toronto a few goals by the end of the season. I also feel Joe Bendik is a decent back up if needed. Full-Backs In comparison, the Toronto tandem of Ashtone Morgan and Richard Eckersley is competitive with most fullbacks in the MLS. I still feel Toronto should adapt a 5-3-2 formation to allow Morgan a chance to exploit his offensive potential and remove some of his defensive responsibilities. I do project Morgan to create five assists this season, which would be more than any other defender in the league. Centre-Backs Based on historical data, the expected starting centre back combination for Toronto will be Danny Catliff and Darren O'Dea. Both are proven defenders with O'Dea having the ability to score goals on set plays, although a concern is the tendency to foul, which might lead to cards, free kicks and penalties. Agbossoumonde, who I rated in my top 10 NASL prospects, has great upside although is a little raw and also has a tendency to foul. Based on the added depth in defense I have concerns over Doneil Henry and don't expect a huge improvement or increase of minutes this year from last season. Defensive Midfield Currently I have Toronto playing a 4-2-3-1 formation and with Torsten Frings now gone it makes Julio Cesar and Terry Dunfield the likely starting defensive midfielders. Julio Cesear has been as much a defender as he has a midfielder during his career in Europe, and although he's shown great defensive attributes in the MLS he has not been a threat in attack with only 2 shots on net last season (coincidently one of them was against Toronto resulting in a stellar goal). Dunfield has shown the ability to pass as well as score the odd goal, although he sometimes get caught up in the role of a hard-man and can give away free kicks. The loss of Frings will hurt Toronto mostly in two ways: one will be his calmness on defense and the other will be his set play ability to set up the offence. Attacking Midfield I have the three attacking midfielders for Toronto being Reggie Lambe on the right, Luis Silva in the centre and Kyle Bekker on the left. All are young and have potential although none have a proven track record at a professional level. I don't project any player scoring more than five goals and if you include all midfielders I have them scoring 15 goals. In comparison, Seattle is projected to score almost twice that amount. With Frings gone, I now project both Silva and Bekker getting more free kick opportunities, which should lead to more assists as well. Both players scored direct free kick goals in College, Silva scoring three and Bekker two, which might lead a goal or two this season. Toronto lacks depth in midfield which I talked about during the draft, and it has been proven statistically in the MLS that non DP signings have failed to improve a club's position, so I don't have much hope for any player currently on a tryout. Forwards When and if Kovermans is fit he has proven the ability to score goals. Based on the projected service I have him scoring more than a goal every two games. Unfortunately I also have him projected to only play 1400 minutes. I feel Justin Braun is a decent signing and given an opportunity can score, and based on his history that would be about 5 to 6 goals a season. The other forwards on the Toronto roster have yet to prove they can score and I have concerns they may miss more chances than they convert. The other issue is they could be a defensive liability via turnovers and failed marking. Season outlook Overall I project Toronto to score 35 goals and allow 54 goals for a plus/minus of -19 and using a pythagenpat formula that is equal to about 31 points on the season or 8 or 9 wins. As noted earlier, if Toronto are able to improve the squad using players with a decent historical performance, these results can change although I would say it's very slim that Toronto can gain enough points this season to make the playoffs. This being said I do feel there are some improvements over last season at the club and key players for the future such as Agbosoumonde, Morgan, Bekker, Silva will be given minutes and should improve. The goal now is to continue to develop the side via depth, or more importantly spend money so Toronto can compete in all positions and ultimately a playoff position.