Shots Overall vs Shots on Target

Shots Overall vs Shots on Target

By Aaron Nielsen

In my last post I mention my dislike for the stat shots off target especially as a positive stat since it leads to the end of the offensive possession.  Although not keeping up with all the advance analytics in soccer I was unaware of the core of a new statistical evolution or fully aware of the stat TSR - http://grantland.com/the-triangle/what-is-total-shots-ratio-and-how-can-it-improve-your-understanding-of-soccer/

Last night I had a drink with a young and enthusiastic soccer and analytics fan who told me he had some modeling for predicting the most undervalued players in the MLS and wanted me to see his work.  Common in statistics he didn't want to show me much of his work and he basically had a list of players with rankings out of 10 including decimals. Aware of the players through seeing them play and my own work I inquired more how he came up with these evaluation. Basically he said he was a fan of the site whoscored.com but he disagreed with their rating system but used the stat "shots per 90" and "key passes per 90" without any raw data so it didn't surprise me a couple of the players on his list were players who only played a few minutes last season.

I don't use any OPTA work in my material which is the source of all whoscored statistics although since its available and OPTA is regarded as the official stat source. people have been drawn to the data and are using it in their own analysis. Although in comparing the data with my own it seems that "shots per 90" are shots on target + shots off target over 90 minutes of play well "key passes per 90" are the assist that lead to the shot (on & off) target over 90 minutes of play.

I don't calculate key passes in any of my work although I know in conservation with people in Spain that stat has been around for a number of years although there. they counted that as an assist and didn't count what we would normally regard as an assist. Personally its hard for me to get my head around awarding an assist on a failed offensive possession since it's not done in any North American sport but I can see some value if you were very specific on which play it should be counted.

Although awarding it on all shots off or on target makes no sense to me because your giving a player credit when more than half of these opportunities lead to a player missing the net and the opposing goalkeeper getting control of the ball. To further emphasize my point on how a miscue stat shots are to goals I went through the top leagues in the world and looked at the current top 20 in goals not including penalties, shots in total, and shots on target all based on the current data although the MLS is the complete 2013 regular season.

English Premier League
Players	Club	Goals	Rank	Shots (on & off)	Rank	Shots (on)	Rank
Suarez	Lvp	23	1st	118	1st	56	1st
Sturridge	Lvp	16	2nd	62	11th	32	3rd
Aguero	Mnc	15	3rd	70	4th	35	2nd
Remy	New	11	4th	69	5th	26	7th
Hazard	Chl	10	5th	53	19th	28	4th
Rodriguez	Sth	10	5th	69	5th	25	9th
Coutinho	Lvp	3	NA	71	3rd	23	13th
Barkley	Eve	3	NA	62	11th	13	NA
Paulinho	Tot	4	NA	55	17th	16	NA
German Bundesliga
Players	Club	Goals	Rank	Shots (on & off)	Rank	Shots (on)	Rank
Aubameyang	Dor	13	1st	49	14th	30	6th
Mandzukic	Bay	12	2nd	46	18th	31	4th
Ramos	HB	12	2nd	62	3rd	33	2nd
Losogga	Hsv	10	4th	53	7th	31	4th
Lewandowski	Dor	10	4th	78	1st	46	1st
Reus	Dor	5	NA	71	2nd	33	2nd
Kruse	Bay	5	NA	53	7th	26	8th
Hunt	WB	1	NA	46	18th	19	NA
Italian Serie A
Players	Club	Goals	Rank	Shots (on & off)	Rank	Shots (on)	Rank
Immobile	Tor	13	1st	54	16th	29	7th
Tevez	Juv	12	2nd	86	2nd	41	2nd
Palacio	Int	11	3rd	58	13th	28	10th
Toni	Ver	11	3rd	72	6th	31	5th
Llorente	Juv	10	5th	39	NA	23	17th
Balotelli	ACM	8	15th	101	1st	42	1st
Diamanti	Bol	2	NA	82	3rd	27	12th
Candreva	Laz	3	NA	74	5th	23	17th
Spanish La Liga
Players	Club	Goals	Rank	Shots (on & off)	Rank	Shots (on)	Rank
Ronaldo	RM	17	1st	160	1st	72	1st
Costa	AM	17	1st	76	3rd	43	2nd
Sanchez	Bar	15	3rd	46	16th	25	9th
Griezmann	Soc	14	4th	69	4th	38	4th
Benzema	RM	14	4th	58	6th	26	9th
Messi	Bar	11	6th	83	2nd	40	3rd
Rakitic	Sev	7	20th	62	5th	21	19th
Di Maria	RM	3	NA	48	14th	27	7th
Dutch Eredivisie
Players	Club	Goals	Rank	Shots (on & off)	Rank	Shots (on)	Rank
Pelle	Fey	18	1st	84	2nd	50	1st
Castaignos	Twe	13	2nd	66	4th	39	3rd
Finnbogason	Hen	13	2nd	71	3rd	37	4th
Promes	Twe	10	4th	49	10th	31	6th
Johannsson	AZ	10	4th	37	NA	24	18th
Depay	PSV	6	NA	95	1st	42	2nd
Tadic	Twe	4	NA	61	6th	29	8th
Chery	Grn	4	NA	49	10th	25	12th
Major League Soccer
Players	Club	Goals	Rank	Shots (on & off)	Rank	Shots (on)	Rank
Di Vaio	MTL	20	1st	118	2nd	53	2nd
Magee	Chi	17	2nd	114	3rd	50	3rd
Camilo	Van	17	2nd	123	1st	55	1st
Oduro	Clm	13	4th	92	8th	36	5th
Fagundez	NE	13	4th	55	NA	29	10th
Bruin	Hou	8	NA	98	5th	30	7th
Higuain	Clm	5	NA	86	10th	31	6th
Zardes	LA	5	NA	78	12th	23	6th

From my view there is no case where shots in general equals goals better than shots on target does as well based on the examples there is many cases where players have a large amount of shots but scored very small amount of goals. And in almost every case a player in the top 20 of scoring ranked higher or equal in shots on target than he did on total shots.

This is true in team data as well as Juventus was the top shooter in the Champions League with 101 shots but only scored 9 goals, Tottenham and Newcastle have 40 more shots than Arsenal in EPL this season. Braunschweig has more shots than Schalke in the Bundesliga yet scored 26 less goals and in La Liga last place Real Betis has more shots than league leaders Atletico Madrid.

This is a trend I been seeing since I started tabulating data for soccer including the most extreme story in Japan J-League in 2001 when Brazilian Wanger Lopes played for relegated side Avispa Fukuoka and had 186 shots in only 34 game season although only 41 were on target and seeing other players with shots in the 30 but only one or two on target I decided to stop recording shots and concentrate only shots on target and in my analysis going over a number of seasons I'm confident with that choice.

In truth some of this new analytics have been around in football for many years with people involved with clubs telling me they were looking at play per 90. shooting analysis, and even expected goals since the early 2000's although I'm encouraged by the enthusiasm by people especially younger ones to look at statistics and analytics. This being said I think there is a fear of group mentality where everyone jumps on idea and that stat becomes a new trend and even in North American sports there have been ratings and other forms of data analysis that were loved at one point but lost its value when it really made no difference on the field. So I love the sharing of ideas but I feel proof of concept is where the value is.

My acquaintance and I at the end of the night agreed to disagree his view was their was a lot more work online proving his concept over my concerns and was dishearten by my initial response as he thought I could introduce the work to MLS clubs in which I told him his best option was to approach OPTA since he was using their work to produce his analysis.  

Although when I got home I felt it unfair just to dismiss a concept especially one that is popular so hopefully this sample of data shows my point and I can include many more samples if wished. Although my footballing view on the matter is - Do I want a player who is willing take a shot? The answer is no, what I want is a player who can score and taking shots in my view doesn't mean your going to score especially if a large percentage are off target or easy saves for the keeper.