Saturday, June 25, 2011

Estimating a Player's Value between Leagues - Version 1.0

Radamel Falcao - FC Porto 

Estimated Statistics in the English Premier League based on his 2010-2011 Portugal Superliga league data.

Falcao key stats during the 2010-2011 Portugesse Super Liga Stats
1765 Minutes 16 Goals 4 Headed Goals 38 Shots on Target

Statistical Comparison
Portugal Super Liga league plays 30 game where English Premier League plays 38
Based on league scoring average through a 38 game schedule Falcao
2241.55 Minutes 20.32 Goals 5.08 Headed Goals 48.26 Shots on Target 38.1 Fouls 1.27 Yellow Cards

Goals
2010-2011 Portugal Super Liga averages 2.39 goals per game
2010-2011 English Premier League averages 2.70 goals per game
Based on league scoring average through a 38 game schedule Falcao new goal total would be 22.76

Headed Goals
2010-2011 Portugal Super Liga averages 0.49 headed goals per game and 20.4% of all goals
2010-2011 English Premier League averages 0.54 headed goals per game and 19.9% of all goals
Based on league scoring average through a 38 game schedule Falcao new head goal total would be 5.15

Shots on Target
2010-2011 Portugal Super Liga 9.41 shots on target per game for a 25.4 Shooting Percentage
2010-2011 English Premier League 9.49 shots on target per game for a 28.4 shooting percentage
Falcao had 38 shots on net for a shooting percentage of 42.1% during the 2010-2011 Portugese La Liga
Based on league scoring average through a 38 game schedule Falcao new shot total would be 49.7
Based on league scoring average through a 38 game schedule Falcao new shot shooting percentage would be 44.6%

So if Portugal Super Liga and English Premier League are equal Falcao estimated statistics would be
2242 Minutes 22 goals 5 headed goals 50 shots on target

League Comparison
The English Premier League is regarded a more difficult league than the Portuguese Super Liga and using the work done by Euro Club Index - http://www.euroclubindex.com/ produced by Infostrada Sport the average rating for the Portuguese Superliga teams are 2304 and the English Premier League are 2667 or 15% difference.

So Falcao estimated total in the English Premier League are:
1905 Minutes 19 goals 4 Headed Goals 43 Shots on Target

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