Sunday, September 9, 2012

2012-2013 Predictions, Depth Chart, Projected Player Statistics & Fantasy Info

Over the next few weeks I will be posting 2012-2013 Depth Chart, Projected Player Statistics, Fantasy Info for the English Premier League, Spanish La Liga, Italian Serie A, German Bundesliga, France Ligue 1 and Dutch Eredivisie teams.

This work is quite common for North American sports such as Baseball and American Football and I have done similar work for the Major League Soccer league - http://enbsports.blogspot.ca/2012/03/projected-2012-player-statisticsfantasy.html last March. The basic idea of taking player historical results and trying to project data for the upcoming season based on the player current situation. This provides an important asset in regards to picking players in fantasy sport but I feel it can also help in overall analytics as well as sports wagering. 

I posted this work now oppose to the beginning of the season due to the September Transfer Deadline and the amount of mathematical calculation needed to produce this work. Although in the process of developing this work I did not use any 2012-2013 preexisting data other than player movement and long term injuries.

From my work these are my prediction for the 2012-2013 league standings based on goals scored, goals allowed and rankings based on goal difference calculated through the projected data.


Premier 
Man City 38 81 36 45
Man Utd 38 78 36 42
Chelsea 38 77 41 36
Tottenham 38 64 44 20
Arsenal 38 63 47 16
Liverpool 38 50 45 5
Everton 38 53 49 4
Newcastle 38 51 49 2
Stoke 38 53 54 -1
WBA 38 53 59 -6
Fulham 38 44 53 -9
Swansea 38 46 55 -9
Sunderland 38 44 56 -12
Aston Villa 38 42 55 -13
QPR 38 48 61 -13
West Ham 38 49 66 -17
Wigan 38 46 63 -17
Southampton 38 48 68 -20
Reading 38 40 65 -25
Norwich 38 41 69 -28
Eredivisie
PSV 34 86 40 46
Ajax 34 79 34 45
AZ 34 62 30 32
Twente 34 69 39 30
Feyenoord 34 56 39 17
Vitesse 34 56 45 11
Heerenveen 34 53 48 5
Utrecht 34 49 46 3
NEC 34 42 46 -4
Roda JC 34 51 56 -5
Groningen 34 49 57 -8
Heracles 34 48 57 -9
RKC 34 33 49 -16
ADO 34 41 62 -21
NAC Breda 34 34 58 -24
Willem II 34 39 64 -25
FC Zwolle 34 27 65 -38
VVV Venlo 34 31 70 -39
Ligue 1
Paris SG 38 70 34 36
Lyon 38 66 39 27
Marsielle 38 59 40 19
Lille 38 58 43 15
Bordeaux 38 52 42 10
Montpellier 38 50 41 9
Rennes 38 53 46 7
Toulouse 38 41 35 6
St Etienne 38 49 46 3
Lorient 38 43 47 -4
Sochaux 38 44 49 -5
Brest 38 36 42 -6
Valenciennes 38 38 49 -11
Nice 38 36 48 -12
Nancy 38 33 45 -12
Troyes 38 33 46 -13
Bastia 38 39 53 -14
Reims 38 35 51 -16
Evian TG 38 36 55 -19
AC Ajaccio 38 37 57 -20
Bundesliga
Bayern M 34 78 28 50
B Dortmund 34 69 26 43
B Leverkusen 34 54 35 19
Schalke 34 56 43 13
M'Gladbach 34 47 34 13
Stuttgart 34 49 41 8
Hamburger 34 48 46 2
Wolfsburg 34 46 46    E
W Bremen 34 45 47 -2
Hoffenheim 34 38 46 -8
Nurnburg 34 37 46 -9
Hanover 34 35 45 -10
Mainz 34 37 50 -13
Frankfurt 34 37 52 -15
Frieburg 34 36 55 -19
Furth 34 29 52 -23
Augsburg 34 32 55 -23
Dusseldorf 34 31 57 -26
Serie A
Juventus 38 67 23 44
Napoli 38 65 36 29
Lazio 38 62 41 21
AS Roma 38 59 42 17
AC Milan 38 50 34 16
Inter Milan 38 59 45 14
Udinese 38 48 38 10
Fiorentina 38 44 41 3
Bologna 38 39 43 -4
Atalanta 38 40 45 -5
Siena 38 38 43 -5
Parma 38 42 50 -8
Palermo 38 46 55 -9
Torino 38 36 46 -10
Chievo 38 35 46 -11
Sampdoria 38 38 52 -14
Catania 38 36 51 -15
Cagliari 38 32 50 -18
Genoa 38 36 58 -22
Pescara 38 33 66 -33
La Liga
Barcelona 38 98 29 69
Real Madrid 38 101 33 68
Valencia 38 64 39 25
Atletico 38 66 42 24
Sevilla 38 51 38 13
Athletic 38 51 44 7
Mallorca 38 43 39 4
Malaga 38 44 43 1
Real Sociedad 38 50 52 -2
Getafe 38 43 48 -5
Levante 38 34 45 -11
Betis 38 39 53 -14
Esponyal 38 36 51 -15
Osasuna 38 38 55 -17
Celta Vigo 38 36 55 -19
Zaragoza 38 38 57 -19
Granada 38 33 55 -22
R Valladolid 38 35 60 -25
Deportivo 38 29 59 -30
Rayo Vallecano 38 31 63 -32

Projected stats taken into account in creating these final projections include games, minutes, goals, assists, shots on target, yellow cards, red cards, goals allowed, clean sheets and saves. The overall score is the projected fantasy total of that player based on his projected stats using the scoring template most common in Fantasy Football games like http://fantasy.premierleague.com/ and ESPN.

For the MLS I have also used this projected data in creating Pythagorean ratios in reseaching betting odds and so for this 2012 MLS season I have a 64% winning percentage in comparision to actual results in the league including draws. 

I hope you enjoy the work and hope it adds a useful component in the continuing exploration of statistics in football.

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